Over the past decade, China has gone from a minor player to the world’s largest beef importer, with purchases rising from around a $100 million in 2010 to nearly $18 billion in 2022, which is a staggering increase of over 17,000%. This surge isn’t just about spending more. The actual volume of beef purchased has grown by more than 8,000%, driven by rising incomes, urban lifestyles, and shifting diets that favor beef over traditional staples like pork. The outbreak of African Swine Fever in 2018, which devastated China’s pig population, further accelerated the shift, while government dietary guidelines have promoted beef as a healthier option. Due to rising demand and imports, coupled with lifting the import restriction on U.S. beef in 2017, China is now the third largest foreign market for U.S. beef—around $1.5 billion in 2024. This rise has been highlighted in previous Southern Ag Today articles (For example, see: https://southernagtoday.org/2025/04/17/high-tariffs-could-halt-u-s-beef-exports-to-china/).
Rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which started earlier this year, raised concerns for U.S. beef exporters. Chinese tariffs on American beef soared as high as 145%, making it far more expensive than beef from countries like Brazil and Australia. Although those tariffs were later lowered to around 33%, the decline had already begun. On top of that, China let export approvals expire for nearly 400 U.S. beef processing plants in March, about 60% of all facilities allowed to ship beef to China, effectively blocking a large portion of U.S. supply (Marianetti, 2025). This move, seen as a non-tariff barrier, has created uncertainty, shaking confidence in the reliability of U.S. beef exports.
In 2025, rising trade tensions quickly took a toll on American beef in China (see Figure 1). From January to September, U.S. beef exports fell sharply—from $814 million in 2024 to $442 million in 2025—a 46% drop driven mostly by lower volumes. The decline was even steeper in the second and third quarters, after China let key export approvals expire, with U.S. beef falling nearly 70%. This happened even as China’s overall beef imports grew in value. Meanwhile, Australia and Brazil gained ground: Australia’s exports to China rose 42%, and Brazil’s increased nearly 25%. In 2024, the U.S. held about 9% of China’s beef import market, compared to Brazil’s 48% and Australia’s 9%. By the third quarter of 2025, the U.S. share had dropped to less than 1%, while Brazil and Australia accounted for 59% and 13%, respectively. It’s a clear sign that when trade tensions rise, other suppliers are quick to take the lead.
Figure 1. Chinese Beef Imports: 2024 and 2025 (Year-to-date: January–September)
Source: Trade Data Monitor®
References
Marianetti, J. (2025). USA Dairy Pork and Poultry Registrations Renewed while Beef Remains Overdue (GAIN Report No. CH2025- 0056). Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, D.C.
Trade Data Monitor. (2025). https://tradedatamonitor.com/
Article courtesy of Southern Ag Today: Muhammad, Andrew. “Recent Trade Tensions Cause U.S. Beef to Lose Ground in China, Spurs Gains for Australia and Brazil.” Southern Ag Today 5(44.4). October 30, 2025. Permalink
