The Federal Reserve’s decision in October to lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, paired with the recent end of the federal government shutdown, marks a turning point for the national economy and for Oklahoma households, businesses, and investors.
“The combination of the rate cut and the reopening of the federal government brings welcome stability for Oklahomans,” said State Treasurer Todd Russ. “Lower borrowing costs, restored paychecks and benefits, along with renewed access to economic data will help our state’s families, businesses, and investors make more confident decisions heading into the new year.”
The rate cut in October, following an initial cut in September, reflects the Federal Reserve’s continued effort to balance its dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. With inflation still somewhat elevated but easing, and labor market conditions showing signs of cooling, the Fed’s move aims to support continued growth while guarding against further job softening.
The shutdown delayed key federal economic data releases, creating uncertainty for markets, businesses, and policymakers. As agencies resume normal operations, updated reports on employment, inflation, and consumer activity will begin to fill in gaps that shaped the Fed’s October decision. Despite limited data, the Fed noted that available public and private indicators suggest the economy has been expanding at a moderate pace. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 1.6% in the first half of the year, down from 2.4% last year, but recent trends point to firmer growth driven by consumer spending and business investment, even as housing activity remains weak.
The Fed also announced it will conclude quantitative tightening in December, signaling an end to balance sheet reductions and a shift toward a more neutral policy stance. Interest rate markets remain largely unchanged since the last cut, and analysts expect another modest reduction before year-end.
Meanwhile, with the shutdown resolved, more than half a million Oklahomans affected by SNAP benefits and the work stoppage, including federal employees and contractors, can expect back pay starting Saturday, November 15. The new spending agreement funds three full-year appropriations bills and extends the remainder of government funding through January 30, providing much-needed stability after weeks of economic strain.
Oklahoma is already distributing partial November SNAP benefits, which began on November 10, 2025. Eligible recipients should already be seeing some benefits while full benefits have not yet resumed, as a timeline for the complete restoration of benefits has not been released even after the government reopened.
The yield curve has flattened since the October 1 shutdown, often a sign of market caution, but with government operations resuming and monetary policy easing, the outlook for year-end growth appears more resilient.
