As 2025 wraps up there is still little indication of significant heifer retention for herd rebuilding though some retention may be beginning slowly. The July Cattle report showed the smallest beef replacement heifer inventory in the history of the report back to 1973, although no comparison to last year was possible (the report was not available last year). The October Cattle on Feed showed that the percentage of heifers in feedlots was unchanged from July and still above average as it has been since late 2018.
It is true that heifer slaughter is down 6.6 percent so far this year and is falling faster than steer slaughter, which is down 4.4 percent for the year to date. Figure 1 shows average monthly heifer slaughter since January 1978. Average heifer slaughter peaked most recently in January 2023 and has declined 9.0 percent as of October 2025. Heifer slaughter is quite variable and does decrease during periods of herd expansion. However, at this point the decrease in heifer slaughter is not enough to indicate significant heifer retention.
Figure 2 shows the ratio of steer to heifer slaughter over the same 49-year period. The obvious spikes in the ratio (dotted circles) correspond to herd expansions in the years 1979-1982; 1990-1996; 2004-2006; and 2014-2019. The ratio increases when heifer slaughter drops relative to steer slaughter during herd rebuilding. The current steer:heifer ratio has begun to increase but appears to indicate only the slightest beginning of heifer retention. Additional heifer retention may build in 2026 but the pace appears to be slow.
OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist Derrell Peel explains how political and global factors disrupted livestock prices this season — and why a rebound is expected in the new year on SunUpTV from December 6, 2025. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W0jKUdsJS0
