Farm Director KC Sheperd recently spoke with Allendale’s Rich Nelson to break down the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. While the December report is typically quiet, this month provided significant adjustments in corn and beef, alongside a growing global supply picture for wheat.
Wheat: Global Production on the Rise Starting with wheat, Nelson noted that the USDA left the U.S. balance sheet unchanged in this report. However, the global landscape is shifting toward higher supply.
“Keep in mind last month for wheat they did add quite a bit to the non-U.S. production numbers; a little bit more was added yet again,” Nelson said.
The report reflected production increases for Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Russia. This marks two consecutive months of “good increases” for the non-U.S. production picture, signaling robust global competition despite the steady domestic numbers.
Corn: An “Aggressive” Export Adjustment The corn sector saw one of the report’s few surprises. The USDA adjusted exports upward by a strong 125 million bushels.
“Normally they’re not so aggressive,” Nelson noted. “So we did see ending stocks dropping from 2.154 billion, now 2.029.”
While the lower ending stocks are positive for the market, Nelson cautioned that traders might remain skeptical of the export increase’s magnitude. Achieving these numbers will require sales to outpace the data seen in recent weeks. There were no changes reported for South American production or Chinese corn imports.
Soybeans: Trade Deal Uncertainty Looms For soybeans, the 2025-26 marketing year numbers remained unchanged across the balance sheet. However, the market is heavily focused on the uncertainty surrounding trade policy.
Nelson highlighted that despite rumors, there has been no official confirmation from Chinese officials regarding the agreed-upon 12 million tons of U.S. soybean buying, nor is there a signed trade deal.
“The current slate of Chinese buying is relatively weak compared to the size of the commitment,” Nelson said.
He also pointed out that Brazil is currently offering soybeans cheaper than the U.S. for the coming months, and total foreign soybean production remains at historic highs of 307 million tons.
Cotton: A Quiet Report The report was relatively quiet for cotton. The USDA made a slight upward adjustment to this year’s crop, moving from 14.2 million bales last month to 14.3 million. With export numbers unchanged, ending stocks drifted slightly higher to 4.5 million bales—a level larger than the prior two years.
Livestock: Major Shifts in Beef Imports While pork numbers remained steady, the beef sector saw “dramatic changes.” The USDA added 300 million pounds to its 2026 beef production view, but the larger story was a massive spike in imports due to recent trade policy changes.
“USDA jumped—and I mean they jumped—their view on imports: 500 million pounds in just one month,” Nelson explained.
This adjustment suggests U.S. consumers will see similar beef availability in 2026 as in 2025, effectively removing the expectation of a supply drop next year. While prices remain historically high, Nelson believes this removes the incentive for a rapid expansion of the cow-calf industry.
“We probably will be stuck with these higher prices offered to the consumer for perhaps another three to four years instead of just one to two,” Nelson said.
Looking Ahead to January Traders are now looking toward the second week of January, which Nelson described as a critical time for data. The USDA will release four separate reports:
- Revisions to 2025 crop numbers (acres, yield, production).
- Quarterly grain stocks (revealing feed residual demand).
- Monthly supply and demand.
- Winter wheat seedings report (the first official look at 2026 acreage).
For more information, visit allendalehub.com or call 1-800-2-MARKET.
You can also view the full reports here:
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
