A warming and drying trend across Oklahoma is leading to a gradual increase in wildland fire activity, including both wildfires and prescribed burning operations, according to the latest fire situation report.
As the state builds separation from the last wetting rainfall, composite fuel moisture levels are decreasing, making vegetation more receptive to fire. Despite the drying conditions, officials note that the probability of significant or large fires remains low for most of the week due to the lack of critical fire weather elements and generally short daily burning periods.
Weekly Outlook Forecasters are closely monitoring two cold fronts expected to arrive on Thursday and Saturday, which will merit attention for potential changes in fire behavior. While no critical fire weather is currently expected, elevated fire conditions are likely to accompany these frontal passages.
Looking further ahead, a dry pattern is expected to persist through the Christmas period. The 6-10 day outlook predicts above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, which will cause fuels to become increasingly receptive to ignition. This extended dry spell is also expected to maintain, and possibly expand, the Severe and Extreme Drought conditions currently impacting parts of south-central and southwestern Oklahoma.
Conditions for Today (Monday) A warming trend begins today, though lingering clouds may limit how much temperatures rise and keep humidity levels from reaching concerning lows, except in the western Oklahoma Panhandle and potentially far southeastern Oklahoma.
- Oklahoma Panhandle: This region will see the warmest conditions, with highs between 59° and 67° and humidity dropping as low as 12% in western Cimarron County.
- Central & Western Oklahoma: Highs will range from 45° to 57° with breezy southerly winds sustaining 12-17 mph and gusting over 20 mph.
- North-Central/Northeast: Expect highs in the upper 40s to low 50s with south-southwest winds gusting around 20 mph.
- Southeast: Temperatures will remain cool, likely staying below 47°, though humidity could drop briefly to the 24-32% range.
Tuesday Forecast The warming trend continues into Tuesday with temperatures reaching the upper 50s in the southeast and the upper 60s in the Panhandle. While mostly respectable overnight moisture recovery will help stall active burning conditions, the Panhandle will again see humidity drop below 20%. Winds are expected to remain moderate, generally around 10 mph.
