Stockman’s Market Update: Rodenberger Talks ‘Full Tilt’ Calf Prices, Herd Rebuilding Realities, and Upcoming Sherry Dispersal
Farm Director KC Sheperd recently caught up with Bob Rodenberger of Stockman’s Livestock Auction in Apache for a candid look at where the cattle industry stands right now.
Despite experiencing a significant market correction recently, Rodenberger expressed optimism for sellers. “In general, the calf market has come back full tilt,” Rodenberger said. He noted that while the feeder market has only recovered about half of its losses, the calf market recovery has been robust due to tight supply.
“We’ve got the calves back where there’s very small margin for people like me that’s buying them… because the board has not corrected itself enough,” Rodenberger explained. “But in general, I mean if you’re a seller… it’s a good Christmas, it’s everything.”
The Myth of Immediate Herd Rebuilding
A major topic of discussion was the industry chatter regarding herd rebuilding. While some reports suggest rebuilding is underway, Rodenberger remains skeptical about the timeline, predicting it could take until 2029 or 2030 to see significant changes.
“I’ve had people tell me that they’re rebuilding herds. We are seeing some of our ranchers hold some heifers over, but they’ve sold that many cows. So that’s not rebuilding,” he stated. He emphasized that while some are buying heifers to breed and resell, it is “not to the extent that we can rebuild the herd that quick.”
“Black Swans” and Market disruptors
Rodenberger and Sheperd touched on the “Black Swan” events—unpredictable occurrences that disrupt the market. “I’m not political, but our President needs to shut his mouth and just do what he does,” Rodenberger stated. He argued that while the administration hasn’t driven the market’s highs, their words can contribute to downturns. “He’s done nothing to get the market where it’s at. Now he’s done a little something to get the market down where it is, but in general, just let supply and demand work”.
Rodenberger also pointed to potential policy changes, specifically regarding the border, as a significant future concern.
“The biggest Black Swan… that’s going to happen that bothers me—and it will happen—will be when they open the Mexican border,” Rodenberger warned. He estimates that cattle crossing the border could eventually account for 8 to 10 percent of the beef supply, potentially offsetting the current low cattle numbers. However, he noted that the industry is likely still a year away from feeling those specific effects.
Strategic Advice: Cull Old, Buy New
For producers worried about the high cost of replacement females, Rodenberger offered specific financial advice: leverage the high value of cull cows.
“If they call and they say they can’t afford that $4,000 cow or heifer, well, you can if you’ll cull your older cow and its calf,” he advised.
Rodenberger explained the math: a broken-mouth cow with a calf can currently bring between $3,500 and $4,000. Producers can use that capital to purchase a younger, immediately productive cow or bred heifer. “Put that back in your herd, up your genetics, and get a younger cow herd… you’ll have a calf this spring and you’ll never break your cash flow.”
Upcoming Event: Jack Sherry Dispersal Sale
Stockman’s Livestock Auction is preparing for a major sale on January 17th, featuring the dispersal of the Sherry family herd from Holdenville.
“It is probably as good a set of Black Angus cows, ranch Oklahoma cows, that I’ve sold,” Rodenberger said, comparing the quality to the historic Jackson Ranch sale. The herd features approximately 200 first-calf heifers bred to proven Gardner genetic low-birth-weight bulls.
“If you’re needing just a good foundation machinery, you can buy these set of cows… It’s a self-contained herd,” he added.
Sale Details:
- Date: January 17th
- Time: Lunch at 12:00 PM, Sale starts at 1:00 PM
- Location: Stockman’s Livestock Auction, Apache, OK
Contact Information For those interested in the sale or seeking advice on their herd, Rodenberger encouraged producers to reach out directly.
- Stockman’s Livestock Auction: 580-588-3840
- Toll-Free: 1-800-926-9696
