In today’s Beef Buzz, Oklahoma Farm Report’s Ron Hays talked with Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State University on Friday afternoon- shortly after the release of the December Cattle on Feed Report. Dr. Peel sees this final 2025 USDA report on feedlot numbers as another indication of tightening U.S. cattle supplies.
Peel says the December report showed November placements at 88.8% of last year and marketings at 88.2%, both sharply lower. The December 1 cattle on feed total came in at 97.9% of a year ago, marking the 13th consecutive month of year‑over‑year declines.
Peel said the numbers were largely in line with expectations, though placements landed on the low end of pre‑report estimates. That was the lowest number of placements since the series began in 1996. “This will likely be taken as at least a slightly bullish report when the market starts trading again,” he noted, pointing to the increasingly limited supply of cattle moving through feedlots.
Over the past six months, placements have fallen 8.6%, reflecting the shrinking pool of available cattle. These recent months will determine fed cattle supply through spring- and that points to continued tight supplies. Reduced imports of Mexican cattle have added to the supply pressure, particularly in the Southern Plains of Texas and Oklahoma , where on‑feed totals remain the lowest in the country.
Early Signs of Heifer Retention
While the report does not break out steers and heifers, Peel said weekly slaughter data shows heifer slaughter declining faster than steers, an early indicator that producers may be beginning to hold back females. Still, he described the shift as “very early” and “not very aggressive,” citing ongoing drought concerns and financial caution among producers and lenders.
Looking into 2026- Peel says “I expect to see the cattle on feed inventories come down a little faster in the coming months…feedlots have done a good job from their perspective in trying to hold inventories as much as they could- they have slowed down the turnover rate but I think going forward- the tighter numbers are going to prevail.” And he adds that the other shoe that will drop at some point will be heifer retention- “if we see an increase in heifer retention- that will exaggerate that even more as we go forward.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
