In today’s Beef Buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays continues his conversation with Don Close about the outlook for cattle markets as the industry heads into 2026. Close says momentum from 2025 is carrying forward, supported by strong demand signals and tighter supplies. “We see the market continuing to perform and excel, and maybe more so than a lot of the other analysts I’ve seen estimates from,” Close explained, pointing to recent confirmation that consumers have not backed away from beef.
Close said retail prices in the fall of 2025 helped validate that demand remains intact. “When we were finally able to catch up on the retail prices September, October and November, that gave the confirmation that retail demand has not weakened at all,” he said. Combined with known placement data from midsummer onward, Close believes the supply picture sets up “the potential for an incredibly strong market” through late first quarter and into the second quarter of 2026.
One major factor shaping supplies is carcass weight. Close noted that weights have already increased significantly, but veterinarians believe cattle still have room to grow. “They expect to see it slow from current levels, but…they think they can still make them bigger,” he said, adding that cattle “have not peaked out of what its weight capacity is.” He views heavier weights as one way the industry has offset fewer cattle while trying to meet beef demand.
On the topic of Mexican cattle imports, Close said limited border reopening efforts could come sooner rather than later. “I wouldn’t in any way be surprised to see some kind of limited opening to the border early in the first quarter,” he said, likely on a trial basis. However, he cautioned producers not to expect immediate relief, noting that “it’s going to be sometime in early ’27 before any of those imported cattle are ready to harvest.” He also expects any cattle coming north to be lighter weight, adding, “I simply don’t believe we have the backlog of cattle in Mexico that many people are trying to claim.”
Close offered a word of caution despite his optimistic price outlook. “While we’re still very optimistic on price,” he said, producers should prepare for unprecedented volatility tied to efforts to reduce food costs. “The risk of volatility is going to be unlike anything we’ve seen… extremely close management and risk management is going to be more pertinent than ever.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
