OSU’s Dr. Todd Hubbs Previews Upcoming WASDE Report and 2026 Crop Market Outlook: As the agricultural community wraps up 2025 and heads into the new production year, all eyes are fixed on Monday’s upcoming World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Farm Director KC Sheperd recently spoke with Oklahoma State University Crop Marketing Specialist Dr. Todd Hubbs to discuss what producers should expect from this pivotal report and how to navigate the current market landscape.
Anticipating the WASDE Report, Monday’s report is expected to be a significant market mover. Dr. Hubbs noted that while general consensus leans toward lower yields for corn and soybeans, the reality may differ.
“I’m expecting lower yields in corn and soybeans,” Hubbs said. “I’m probably going to be disappointed, but I think a lot of us are expecting those production numbers to come down on last year’s crop.”
In addition to yield adjustments, the report will provide key data on winter wheat seedings—expected to be slightly lower for 2026—and grain stocks. Hubbs emphasized the importance of the stocks report in determining corn demand, particularly regarding feed and residual numbers, which many analysts believe the USDA currently estimates too high.
Market Strategy: Capitalizing on Winter Rallies With many producers facing tight margins, Hubbs advised that any rally resulting from a positive report should be viewed as a selling opportunity. He noted that some of the best market rallies in recent years have occurred during the winter months.
“If you’re sitting on old crop… or you’re looking to market some new crop… and we get a rally out of these reports, you might want to think about pulling the trigger on some of those,” Hubbs advised, suggesting producers consider pricing 5% to 10% of their crop if prices jump.
However, realistic expectations are necessary. Hubbs cautioned that seeing corn hit $5 or soybeans hit $11 would require “something really dramatic.” If the report comes back negative, he suggests producers wait it out through the winter rather than panic-sell, provided cash flow allows.
Assistance Programs and Geopolitical Factors The conversation also touched on recent USDA announcements, including the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. While acknowledging the support, Hubbs was candid about its limitations.
“That’s a bridge, but it isn’t like a bridge on an interstate. It’s a rickety old bridge on a back country road,” Hubbs remarked regarding the $155,000 cap. “It’ll help a little bit, but I don’t think it’s going to save people’s bacon.”
Finally, addressing the uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil and its potential impact on agriculture, Hubbs downplayed the direct effect on ag commodities. While lower oil prices could marginally help ethanol or biofuel demand, he views the situation primarily as a contributor to general geopolitical uncertainty, which adds volatility to the broader markets.
Monday’s WASDE report will set the tone for the 2026 marketing year, and producers are encouraged to stay vigilant as the numbers are released.
