USDA is set to release the January Cattle on Feed and the much-anticipated Cattle inventory report later this month. This SAT takes a brief look at expectations for each report, key points to look for when they are released, and some market implications of each.
Cattle on Feed
The Cattle on Feed report is set to be released on Friday, January 23rd. There was one more slaughter day during the month of December, based on when the weekends and holidays fell. That extra day shows up in pre-report estimates of increased marketings for the month. December marketings are expected to be about 2 percent higher than December 2024. Daily average marketings should have lagged behind last year, which is to be expected with fewer cattle on feed.
Placements of feeders into feedlots are expected to be below a year ago, with pre-report estimates down around 5 percent. December placements versus a year ago reflect the border closure to cattle imports from Mexico, with no cattle imported in December 2024 and 2025. This is the first full month of comparison with no imports for a month in either year. Large declines in placements during 2025 included the impact of no Mexican feeder cattle so in coming months year-over-year placements will indicate changes in domestic feeder cattle placements.
The combination of larger marketings and smaller placements results in the total number of cattle on feed expected to be down more than 2 percent on January 1, compared to January 1, 2025. This report will include an estimate of the number of heifers on feed. This may be the most anticipated number in the report as evidence of any heifer retention for herd growth.
Cattle
The annual Cattle inventory report will be released on Friday, January 30th. This report will provide evidence of herd rebuilding and whether this cattle cycle has bottomed out with growth beginning. I tend to focus on the beef cow herd and heifers held for beef cow replacement more than other data points in the report. Cow herd: Pre-report estimates indicate close to the same number of cows as a year ago. Beef cow slaughter during 2025 was down almost 20 percent compared to the year before, and that is low enough for a slight increase in cow numbers. High calf prices certainly provided an incentive to try to get one more calf out of older cows before culling them.
There has been little hard evidence of heifer retention providing cow herd growth. Continued high heifer slaughter, a large number of heifers on feed as a percent of all cattle on feed, very low numbers of heifers held last year to enter the herd, and a historically small calf crop all contribute to expectations of little herd growth from the heifer side.
Beyond the cow herd, the dairy herd should show the largest number of cows since the early 1990s. The number of stockers on small grain pastures will be interesting for potential placements in the next couple of months. The number of all cattle will be interesting as a historical number for the cattle cycle.
Article courtesy of Southern ag today: Anderson, David. “Two Big Cattle Reports This Month.” Southern Ag Today 6(4.2). January 20, 2026. Permalink
