USDA’s latest crop reports delivered a bearish tone for grain markets, according to OSU Extension crop marketing specialist Dr. Todd Hubbs. He said the biggest surprise was corn, noting a “record corn production number… over a 17 billion bushel corn crop,” alongside slightly higher soybean yields and expanding global supplies. Hubbs added that wheat production is also growing internationally, creating “large supplies in the globe, low prices for the most part.”
On the global stage, Hubbs said wheat competition is intensifying as major exporters increase production. “Australia had a huge crop. Argentina looks like they’re putting on a record crop for them,” he said, while Russia’s wheat crop was also revised higher. Although the U.S. crop was not a record, Hubbs noted the country is still “carrying a lot of wheat around,” making export competition tougher later in the marketing year. For corn, he emphasized strong demand, saying, “We’re moving it, we’re sending it out in exports… we’ve got really strong demand at these lower prices,” but questioned whether USDA demand projections can be met.
Soybeans are facing similar pressure, driven largely by South America. Hubbs said Brazil is poised for “the largest [soybean crop] they’ve ever had,” adding that favorable weather could push production even higher. He noted that despite La Niña concerns earlier in the season, “most of the South American bean crops are looking pretty good,” contributing to “a lot of supply in the world, a lot of competition.”
Markets reacted swiftly after the reports, with Hubbs saying corn prices “fell like 25 cents over the next two sessions,” while wheat and soybeans fared slightly better. He was surprised by Oklahoma’s winter wheat acreage, which came in up 16 percent, cautioning producers not to rely on potential acreage losses. “Planted acres aren’t harvested acres,” Hubbs said, adding that weather, global trade, and policy uncertainty remain key factors to watch as the marketing year unfolds.
This Week on SUNUP:
- Paul Beck, OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist, says with drought expanding, grass tetany could be an issue for cattle producers this winter and early spring.
- In the Mesonet Weather Report, state climatologist Gary McManus discusses the upcoming winter storm and the projected precipitation that it is expected to bring.
- In Market Monitor, Todd Hubbs, OSU Extension grain marketing specialist, analyzes the USDA’s recent crop reports and explains why the corn price dipped.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Mark Johnson, OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist, explains the current market trends in the beef industry.
- Finally, Dave Lalman, OSU Extension beef cattle specialist, has tips on how to know exactly what to supplement when it comes to mineral feeders.
