A mid-week rally in the wheat markets and speculation surrounding global crop conditions took center stage in a recent conversation between Farm Director KC Sheperd and Oklahoma State University Marketing Analyst Dr. Todd Hubbs. With the hard red winter wheat market seeing a notable boost, Hubbs offered insights into the driving forces behind the price movement and what producers should watch for in the coming weeks.
Wheat Rally and Weather Speculation On Wednesday morning, the hard red winter wheat market saw a rally exceeding 12 cents, a movement Hubbs attributed largely to macroeconomic comments from the White House.
“President Trump talking down the dollar has really helped us out here today,” Hubbs explained, noting that prices were nearing the top of recent trading ranges. He advised producers to remain vigilant. “I think people should keep their heads on a swivel. We get some more push on this, might want to think about it.”
While recent jumps in price have been partly fueled by speculation over “winter kill” and weather conditions, Hubbs remained cautious about the actual damage to the crop. He noted that while the market often attempts to “kill this crop and the one in Russia” this time of year, reports of confirmed damage in the Northern Hemisphere remain scarce.
“If people want to speculate and run up the price for us, I’m more than happy to take it,” Hubbs said. He suggested that if prices break through resistance levels—such as the $5.75 mark on the July contract—producers might consider it a selling opportunity. “If these kind of prices are somewhere you’re profitable, you might want to think about selling old crop or new crop.”
Export Rebound and Basis Levels Following two weeks of negative net sales, U.S. wheat exports saw a recovery with over 8 million bushels in net sales last week. Hubbs noted that low prices have attracted “bargain shoppers” across wheat, corn, and soybeans, providing a floor of support for U.S. prices. However, he warned that massive 2025 crops in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres mean competition remains fierce.
Regarding local markets, Hubbs observed that while the wheat basis remains relatively flat in Oklahoma, there has been positive movement for Milo (grain sorghum).
“One of the lesser talked about stories is that deal we got in November on beans when China started buying, they also started buying Milo,” Hubbs said, pointing to improved basis levels as a result.
Soybean Complex and Biofuel Rumors Turning to soybeans, Hubbs highlighted a “really good crush program” but pointed out a critical anomaly: the oil extraction rate has been unusually low, likely a feature of last year’s crop. This lower oil yield, combined with potential policy shifts, could influence future prices.
“The only really major uncertainty out there is the biofuel policy,” Hubbs stated, citing rumors of an early March release. “If that thing’s really supportive… we can get a real good push in this market.”
However, the looming South American harvest presents a challenge. With Brazil expecting a “massive crop,” Hubbs indicated that China’s purchasing attention is naturally shifting southward. “We’re at that point in the year where they’re turning that way,” he confirmed, suggesting the window for significant U.S. export sales is narrowing.
Corn Usage and Supplies Despite a massive supply of 18.5 billion bushels, Hubbs reported that corn usage remains strong. Ethanol production is “grinding really good,” and exports are currently on target to meet USDA forecasts.
Hubbs concluded the update with a look ahead to his travels to Western Oklahoma for Extension agent training, along with some lighthearted banter about the wintry forecast. A former resident of the Minnesota-Wisconsin border, Hubbs joked about his wish for heavy machinery to handle the snow.
“I want a skid steer just to do my driveway, but my wife won’t let me have one,” he laughed.
