Lynsey Such with Allendale discussed the latest agricultural report, highlighting reduced wheat supply and potential impacts of erratic weather on crops. She also noted increased beef production and anticipated higher beef imports in 2024 and 2025, predicting a tight supply situation to continue into early 2025. Lynsey expected the next couple of months to be quiet due to the holidays, with adjustments to world supplies expected in the new year.
“Wheat actually did give us some excitement on this report,” Such said. “We know that we are working with a reduction of supply for this wheat stock. We have higher domestic use, and we saw lower ending stocks today. Production was reduced by 11 million bushels, to now, 1.97 billion bushels, while imports were increased by 10 billion bushels. This was due to really strong early-season activity.
“What I would say was a little more interesting was on the world side for wheat. USDA’s outlook shows lower supplies and lower consumption. Global wheat production is expected to be down due to lower production in the EU. This is offset by Ukraine’s higher production and Russia’s large beginning stocks. So we did see a rise in global ending stocks for the global wheat picture to now, 257 million tons, but I do want to point out that this is still one of the lowest levels since 2015 to 2016. So global wheat is a story for us when it comes to prices in the future.”
USDA raised corn production and yields on Friday, bumping corn to 15.2 billion bushels, while slightly lowering soybean production to 4.582 billion bushels.
The corn yield was pegged at 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa), up 0.2 bpa, still a record. Soybean yield was reported at 53.1 bpa, down 0.1 bpa, but also still a record.
USDA released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday.
You can also view the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
WHEAT
USDA estimates 2024-2025 U.S. wheat harvested acres at 38.5 million, an increase from 37.9 million in September. The area planted was estimated at 46.1 million acres, down from 46.3 million.
U.S. wheat production was estimated at 1.971 bb in October, down from USDA’s September estimate of 1.982 bb. Ending stocks were estimated at 812 mb, a decrease from 828 mb in September.
Wheat exports were pegged at 825 mb, which is unchanged from September. USDA estimates the farmgate price at $5.70, also unchanged from September.
World ending stocks were estimated at 257.72 million metric tons, up from 257.22 mmt in September.
Global wheat production was pegged at 794.08 mmt, down from 796.88 mmt in September.
Wheat production in Russia was estimated at 82 mmt, down from September’s estimate of 83 mmt.
Ukraine wheat exports is estimated at 16 mmt. USDA estimates Ukraine production at 22.9 mmt, a slight bump up from 22.3 mmt last month.
Australia’s wheat production was pegged at 32 mmt in October, unchanged from last month. Production in Argentina was estimated at 18 mmt, also unchanged.
CORN
Going against analysts’ pre-report expectations, corn production is projected at 15.203 billion bushels (bb), up 17 million bushels (mb) from September. USDA also slightly increased yield 0.2 bushels per acre (bpa) to a record 183.8 bpa. That also went against analysts’ projections.
Harvested acres remained at 82.7 million acres.
For demand, USDA raised exports 25 mb to 2.325 bb, the only change on the demand side. USDA projected total feed and residual use at 5.825 bb.
Ethanol use is forecast at 5.45 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.665 bb with food, seed & industrial use included.
Ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were lowered 58 mb to 1.999 bb. USDA also lowered old-crop carryover 52 mb to 1.76 bb.
The farm gate price for 2024-25 remained unchanged at $4.10 a bushel.
Globally, USDA raised 2024-25 beginning stocks to 312.65 million metric tons (mmt). Global production was lowered 1.38 mmt from September. Global ending stocks were pegged at 306.52 mmt, down 1.83 mmt from September. USDA held pat on 2024-25 Brazil’s corn production at 127 mmt and Argentina at 51 mmt.
For the global 2023-24 crop, USDA also held Brazil’s 2023-24 production at 122 mmt, but lowered exports 2 mmt to 46 mmt. USDA also maintained Argentina’s production to 50 mmt but also lowered Argentina’s exports 3 mmt to 32 mmt in exports.
SOYBEANS
USDA trimmed its national yield estimate for soybeans by 0.1 bushel per acre to 53.1 bpa. Overall production declined 4 million bushels because of the change, coming in at 4.582 billion bushels.
Ending stocks for 2024-25 were unchanged at 550 mb. USDA boosted beginning stocks by 2 mb, which helped to offset the production increase. USDA adjusted residual use lower by 2 mb to adjust for the rest. The national average farm gate price was also unchanged at $10.80 per bushel.
USDA made several changes on the 2023-24 balance sheet, reflecting its revisions to production from that crop year. Production was cut by 3 mb, and imports grew by 1 mb, leading to a 2 mb change in overall supply. Crush demand was updated to 2.287 bb from last month’s 2.295 mb. Exports were cut by 5 mb to 1.695 bb. Residual use climbed to 45 mb from 36 mb, for total use of 4.105 bb, 4 mb lower than last month’s estimate. USDA pegged ending stocks at 342 mb, up 2 mb from last month. The national average farm gate price dropped by a dime to $12.40 per bushel.
Globally, stocks estimates for the 2024-25 growing season increased fractionally to 134.65 million metric tons, with USDA making minor tweaks throughout. Brazil and Argentina are forecast to grow 169 mmt and 51 mmt respectively.
For the old-crop season, USDA estimated global ending stocks at 112.37 mmt and left Brazilian and Argentine production unchanged at 153 mmt and 48.1 mmt respectively.
LIVESTOCK
Friday’s WASDE report was supportive to both the beef and cattle markets for 2024, according to DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
“2024 beef production was raised by 205 million pounds to total 27,000,000 pounds for the year as beef production for the third and fourth quarters are expected to be greater than last month’s projection and carcass weights remain at record levels,” Stewart said. “Beef production for 2025 was also increased — by 300 million pounds — as production in the first half of the year is expected to be greater than originally assumed. It was exciting to see quarterly steer price projections increased from last month’s report as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $186 (up $3 from last month), first-quarter steer prices in 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1 from last month) and second-quarter steer prices in 2024 are expected to average $186 (which is steady with last month’s projection). 2024 beef imports were increased by 55 million pounds as supplies continue to come into the U.S. aggressively from Oceania and South America, but beef exports for 2024 were also increased by 5 million pounds.
“Friday’s WASDE report was mixed to both the hog and pork markets of 2024. 2024 pork production was decreased by 105 million pounds, as recently, slaughter speeds have been reduced and carcass weights are lighter. Quarterly price projections were favorable to the hog complex, as hogs in the fourth quarter of 2024 are now expected to average $55 (up $1 from last month), hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $55 (up $1 from last month) and hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $61 (up $1 from last month). Pork imports for 2024 are unchanged, but pork exports for 2024 fell by 30 million pounds.”
