KC Sheperd, Farm Director, is back talking with Bob Rodenberger, a Stockman Oklahoma Livestock Marketing partner, as he gives the latest on the cattle markets.
Despite some cancellations in last Monday’s sale due to snow, there were still 8,000 head sold, and the market remained very strong. The Apache sale ran 4,700 later in the week.
“If you are a seller, it is a seller’s market,” Rodenberger said. “Just keep selling into it. If you are running short on wheat, sell the cattle. If you aren’t running out of wheat, and you are going to keep them, then get some LRP on them or some puts or a hedge on them or something. I’m not saying that it won’t go higher, but why pass up $2,100 eight-weight cattle in May?”
From talking to clients, Rodenberger says that many are waiting to see if they get adequate rain in the spring before they decide to rebuild their herds. Even so, he expects the current market to continue steadily over the next couple of weeks.
“We are selling fat cattle in the $2.02 to $2.05 range,” he said. “We are still moving meat. Boxed beef keeps going up. The packers are starting to get back in the black. They have to make money, the feedyard has to make money, the stocker operator has to make money, and the cow man has to make money.”
He noted that the cow calf operator has been in the driver’s seat for a while and recalled a couple of years ago when $65 came off the board in 45 days without apparent reason. “My biggest fear, is where is the next black swan?” he said. “It has nothing to do with our industry as far as production or supply or demand. It is just the funds drive this thing ten to twenty dollars higher than it should be, but they also drive it ten to twenty dollars lower than it should be, and that is just the new age – that is just going to be part of our business – so protect yourselves with some sort of insurance.”
