NCC Survey Suggests Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas Cotton Acreage Down for 2025

U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.6 million cotton acres this spring, down 14.5 percent from 2024, according to the National Cotton Council’s 44th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. (see table attached)

Upland cotton intentions are 9.4 million acres, down 14.4 percent from 2024, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 158,000 acres represent a 23.5 percent decline. The detailed survey results were announced today during the 2025 National Cotton Council Annual Meeting.

  Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC’s Vice President, Economics & Policy Analysis, said, “Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size.”

Based on ten-year average abandonment rates along with a few state-level adjustments, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 7.8 million acres for 2025. Using the five-year average yield for each state generates a cotton crop of 13.9 million bales, with 13.5 million upland bales and 392,000 ELS bales.

The NCC questionnaire, mailed in January to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2024 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through the end of January.

Campiche noted, “History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. As compared to average futures prices during the first quarter of 2024, all commodity prices were lower during the survey period, but cotton had the largest decline. As a result, the price ratios of cotton to corn and soybeans were lower than in 2024. Based on historical price relationships, this would generally suggest a decline in cotton acreage.”

Growers in the Southwest intend to plant 14.5 percent less cotton. Kansas growers expect to plant 12.5 percent more cotton at the expense of wheat and soybeans. Oklahoma producers expect to reduce cotton acreage by 5.0 percent and plant more corn, sorghum and other crops. Texas acreage is expected to decline by 15.8 percent. South Texas growers expect to plant more sorghum and other crops. In the Blacklands, growers intend to plant more corn, wheat and sorghum. West Texas growers reported an increase in wheat, sorghum, corn, peanuts, and other crops.

Southeast respondents indicate a 19.3 percent decline in cotton acreage to 1.9 million acres. In Alabama, the survey responses indicate a 10.5 percent decrease in cotton acreage. In Florida, respondents indicated 17.0 percent less cotton. Georgia growers expect to reduce acreage by 21.5 percent to 864 thousand acres. If realized, this would represent the lowest level of Georgia cotton acreage since 1993. The survey indicates a decline in cotton acreage of 26.9 percent in North Carolina, 15.0 percent in South Carolina, and 8.8 percent in Virginia. According to the survey responses from Southeast growers, the expected decline in cotton acres is due to an increase in corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, and peanuts.

Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.8 million acres, a decline of 8.2 percent from the previous year. In Arkansas, acreage is expected to decline by 7.0 percent, while Louisiana growers expect to plant 12.7 percent less cotton. In Mississippi, cotton acreage is expected to decline by 9.0 percent. Missouri growers expect to plant 9.0 percent less cotton, while Tennessee acreage is expected to decline by 6.1 percent. Survey responses suggest an increase in corn, peanuts, and other crops. Growers in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri also expect to plant fewer soybeans, while Tennessee growers indicated an increase in soybean acreage.

In the West, upland cotton acreage is expected to decline by 12.3 percent. Upland cotton acreage is expected to decline by 18.8 percent in Arizona and 40.8 percent in California. New Mexico growers intend to plant 17.3 percent more upland cotton in 2025. According to the survey responses, the expected decline in upland cotton acres in the West is due to an increase in corn, wheat, and other crops.

ELS acreage is expected to decline by 23.5 percent in 2025. Arizona growers expect to plant 2.6 percent more ELS cotton, while California growers expect to plant 27.6 percent less ELS cotton. Water availability is impacting cotton acreage decisions in 2025. New Mexico ELS cotton acreage is expected to decline by 20.0 percent, while Texas growers expect to plant 18.2 percent less ELS cotton. Overall, U.S. cotton growers intend to plant 158,000 ELS acres in 2025. NCC delegates were reminded the expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time with actual plantings influenced by changing market conditions and weather. Producers will continue to monitor changes in commodity prices and input costs before finalizing their 2025 acreage decisions.

Prospective 2025 U.S. Cotton Area