This Week on SUNUP: Dr. John Michael Riley Analyzes the Impact of Exports on Wheat Futures Prices

Dr. John Michael Riley discusses the highs and lows of current grain markets.

This week on SUNUP, OSU Agriculture Economist Dr. John Michael Riley analyzes why the export market is impacting the futures price for wheat.

Springtime brings a lot of activity with crops and that spills over into the crop markets.

Wheat markets saw some positive trends nearing the end of March with prices above $6 per bushel on the futures market due to persistent drought conditions throughout most of the wheat country.

“Since then, rains to the North of us have created a little bit of pressure, but I think the biggest pressure that we are seeing in regard to wheat is exports,” Riley detailed. “We are certainly seeing exports starting to lag a little bit. They’ve been keeping up pace for the most part through the beginning of 2025, but since then, there is certainly some pressure coming from the export side of things given a lot of anticipation of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs given the changes in regard to our administration.”

In Oklahoma, wheat prices are $0.20 to $0.30 below the futures market, depending on location. “Earlier in the year, we’re speaking to weakening basis across most of our crops,” Riley said. “That is still persistent in some of our other commodities, but we’ve certainly seen wheat basis improve from those weaker levels that we started 2025 with.”

Wheat jointing in Oklahoma is at 27%, which is normal for this time of the year, despite drought conditions and heavy winds.

Riley continued to talk about soybeans, corn, and cotton. Click the listen bar at the top of the page to listen to the complete audio report.

This week on SUNUP: 

  • Paul Beck, OSU Extension beef cattle specialist, says waiting to graze stressed pastures until the grasses have a strong root system will help with pasture recovery during drought
  • Liberty Galvin, OSU Extension weed management specialist, has guidance for applying herbicide on drought-stressed wheat fields.
  • John Weir, OSU Extension fire ecologist, explains how easily farm equipment can start a wildfire.
  • In the Mesonet report, state climatologist Gary McManus says warmer weather is on its way, though a normal precipitation pattern is predicted.
  • John Michael Riley, OSU agricultural economist, analyzes why the export market is impacting the futures price for wheat.

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