Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays is attending the 10th Annual Hemphill County Beef Conference in Canadian, Texas, and had the chance to speak with Atmospheric Scientist Matt Makens who provided a weather outlook for attending producers. Hays found one excerpt of the conversation to be particularly interesting regarding the abnormal amounts of rainfall the Southern Plains have received this month.
Makens has presented thousands of weather forecasts and outlooks to dozens of industries since the 1990’s; however, his company, Makens Weather, LLC., specifically focuses on providing actionable long-term seasonal forecasts and short-term weather hazards for the agricultural community. It serves global clients from Australia to Canada and throughout the United States; notably CattleFax and NCBA.
Hays pointed out the limited amount of rainfall received from January until March across the state of Oklahoma and compared it to the record and near record amounts falling during the month of April, and asked what changed?
Makens explained, “We have talked about catching these elements in their transition. As it is flowing from one thing to another, there is a moment when that transition covers you. November was another transition. Now, we are transitioning a seasonal change, and we are caught in this transition again.”
He noted that although seasons change every year, this one is more exceptional due to a healthy supply of storm systems coming out of the Rocky Mountains and drawing moisture from the Gulf.
“The connection globally to any one catalyst really drops off in April and May until you get into the summer,” he added. “In a large context, it has been the luck of the draw. In other contexts, it is catching the transition out of La Niña for the winter, getting the water from here to Tennessee to Kentucky, and you are on the tail end of it, so there is some science to it. There is also some luck, honestly.”
He emphasized the transitional months of the year being the times to watch for such events as this: October/November, March/April, and possibly into May.
“Once you kind of start the idea, and you see Mother Nature is onto something, that is kind of a continued path, whether it be two weeks or four weeks, whatever it may be, where she’s like, ‘Okay, I’ll keep sending you rain for this duration, and then, I’ll shut you off,’” Makens stated. “A lot of Oklahoma, a lot of the panhandle of Texas, are in that favored Mother Nature Zone, right now.”
Looking ahead, the forecast shows hit and miss chances of rain for the next four weeks, but Makens admitted that he’ll be surprised if Mother Nature is still pouring rain on the area in late May and early June.”
