The fertilizer market is currently navigating a complex landscape shaped by new tariffs, trade actions, and emerging policy initiatives. Farm Director KC Sheperd recently spoke with Corey Rosenbusch, President and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, gaining valuable insights into these dynamic forces.
Rosenbusch immediately painted a picture of Washington’s fast-paced and often unpredictable environment. “I have a great story when you talk about things happening in Washington. I was with an advisor to President Trump the other day, and when there were 10 Association CEOs, one of them said, Is Trump playing chess and we’re just playing checkers? I loved that question because I thought it was really relevant. The answer was even better. He said, No, he’s playing speed chess and you’re playing checkers. And that’s what it feels like every day you wake up just wondering what will be talked about at four o’clock and pray that it’s not your industry that gets talked about.”
He then addressed the significant impact of tariffs. “So it’s been a whirlwind, but tariffs obviously have been top of mind, and it’s had a huge impact on the market. So even with some of the good news that has come out of the Oval Office, we still saw potash, for example, jump by 22% when the Canadian tariffs were originally announced. You know, we’re looking anywhere from 15 to 25% kind of market shifts, even in the last month with some of the reciprocal tariffs, or even the Chinese ship building rule, diverted a lot of supply that was intended for us growers to Brazil, because everyone didn’t know what to expect. And no business is like uncertainty.”
Rosenbusch highlighted the unique challenges of the agricultural sector in the context of these trade discussions. “And so on the positive side, they know what potash is now. I would have never dreamed that potash would be the subject of three executive orders now. And so there’s this great awareness that agriculture is unique. My favorite question that they asked us was when we were talking about potash supply, 87% coming from Canada. They said, well, we’ll get through all of this. Can’t we apply the fertilizer in July? And I know we laugh at that, but you say, we’ve got to step back and start with the basics. We’re not automobiles. You can’t just delay your purchase till September. Mother Nature doesn’t work that way. So it’s given us a great opportunity to tell our story.”
Despite the market fluctuations, Rosenbusch provided a broader perspective. “It has had a bit of an impact on the marketplace, but I will say, overall, big picture, we’re still right in line, at least on nitrogen and potash, with the 10-year average and where we’ve been. The real challenge is that the farm economy is just, you know, not great right now. So we need to see, we need to see that farm economy pick back up, because we gotta all succeed together.”
When asked about specific fertilizers facing scrutiny, Rosenbusch noted the current stability of potash. “Potash, the big one that everybody’s talking about right now, or any others that anybody’s mentioning? Well, ironically, potash is in pretty good shape. So we’ve actually seen a little bit of a decline in the market in the last month. I think everybody panicked in February, because it’s just a supply chain. It’s coming over via rail from Canada. Some places only had about 60% of the spring supply in place. And if there was going to be a tariff, there was a scramble to get it in. All of that worked it out. The supply chain worked out, and it worked its way through. You know, the potash worked its way through the supply chain. We had, of course, the exemption. So it was more of the reciprocal tariffs that we’re dealing with now, and a lot of those importing countries now sitting at a 10% tariff, that’s the bigger deal at this point. Phosphates, you know, still remain higher than the 10-year average, but that wasn’t tariff-related. That all existed before the tariff announcements.”
Looking ahead, Rosenbusch outlined the Institute’s key priorities. “Trade was a big one. I think tax will be the next thing that we focus on. Reconciliation. Of course, is it going to happen? We think maybe, when, where? Why? How? We don’t know. However, tax will be a big part of maintaining the tax cuts and the corporate tax rate. And for the fertilizer industry, there’s something really unique in there: some of the investments coming from Oklahoma. You know, that is natural gas Central. So a lot of the expansion of nitrogen production, about $7 billion of projects, were announced because of some of those tax incentives, including in the Inflation Reduction Act. That’s a bad word to Republicans. Congress wants to wipe it out, and so we’re trying to educate them that there were some positive provisions from a tax incentive standpoint to expand nitrogen production that we want to ensure are protected.”
Finally, Rosenbusch addressed potential long-term obstacles, “I mean, there’s always going to be obstacles. I mean, I think if you look at the Make It America Healthy movement, that’s a big unknown right now. And Secretary Rollins took RFK, Secretary Kennedy, to my alma mater, Texas A&M, last week, showed him some farms, educating him on the science that goes into growing our food. I’m very optimistic, but I do not believe that agriculture will be the target. Will be a target for Kennedy. I have no guarantees. We can’t rest on all our laurels. We’re doing everything we can to educate not only HHS but the White House. But I think that’s the big unknown right now.”
