USDA Slightly Lowers Corn Production, Boosts Old-Crop Corn Exports to Record Level

USDA on Friday slightly lowered corn production in line with pre-report estimates and boosted old-crop corn exports to a record level.

USDA released its July Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday. Oklahoma Farm Report’s Ron Hays talked with Rich Nelson of Allendale about the USDA Reports shortly after they were released.

Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Friday’s reports, including commentary from our analysts.

WHEAT

USDA increased its estimate of all 2025-2026 wheat production to 1.929 billion bushels, up from 1.921 bb in its June report. USDA estimates ending stocks at 890 million bushels, down from 898 mb in June. Ending stocks for old-crop wheat increased to 851 mb from June’s estimate of 841 mb. Total use in new-crop wheat estimated at 2.009 bb is up from 1.984 bb in June, while exports increased to 850 mb from 825 mb last month.

Rich Nelson noted that the USDA made real-time adjustments to the wheat balance sheet, saying, “the wheat balance sheet is considered real time, so to speak,” and despite lower harvested acres, “they did bump up this yield a little bit here, and therefore we had a light net increase in production.” He highlighted a reduction in ending stocks to 890 million bushels: “they did drop stocks a little bit. 890… for the most recent update here today.” Nelson found the winter wheat situation particularly notable, stating, “last month, they were 782 million bushels, now, 755.” He also raised concern about crop quality, adding, “maybe there’s some very light quality concerns with those heavy rains right at harvest.”

CORN

USDA forecasts the 2025-26 crop corn at 15.705 billion bushels (bb), down 115 million bushels (mb) based on a yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre. Planted acres were lowered 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, matching the June 30 crop report. Harvested acres are projected at 86.8 million, down 600,000 acres from June. USDA lowered beginning stocks for the new crop 25 mb to 1.34 bb. On the demand side, the forecast for the 2025-26 corn crop projects total feed and residual use at 5.85 billion bushels, down 50 mb from last month. Ethanol use is pegged at 5.5 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.735 bb, down 50 mb.

Rich Nelson explained that the USDA’s numbers for new-crop corn remain somewhat artificial, as they continue to rely on trendline yields rather than adjusting based on current conditions. He said, “these are still a little artificial. USDA, especially in the past 11 years, has really not wanted to move a yield for corn… off the trend needle, so to speak.” Because of this, he emphasized that the market is trading a different outlook: “these markets are trading a different yield number… they are trading a view that we’re a little higher than that trend estimate.”

SOYBEANS

USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre soybean planting estimate into its supply and demand forecast, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in production to 4.335 mb. Yield was left unchanged at 52.5 bushels per acre. The forecast for 2025-26 soybean ending stocks increased by 15 mb to 310 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. Along with lower production, USDA increased crush forecast by 50 mb to 2.54 mb while cutting exports by 70 mb. Total use declined to 4.395 mb. The national average farmgate price dropped by 15 cents to $10.10 per bushel. For the old-crop, 2024-25 season, USDA left ending stocks unchanged at 350 mb but adjusted usage. It increased exports by 15 mb to 1.865 mb and cut the residual from 45 mb to 27 mb. It increased the national average farm gate price by a nickel to $10 per bushel.

Rich Nelson explained that the USDA made minimal changes to soybean estimates in the latest report. He said, “we did see them leave stock numbers unchanged” for old-crop soybeans, though they did make some adjustments elsewhere: “they moved some exports around, moved some crops around.” For new-crop soybeans, the USDA also kept stock numbers steady, sticking to their trend-based yield approach. Nelson emphasized that, like corn, the market is trading a different view: “these markets are trading a different yield number a view that we’re a little higher than that trend estimate.”

Report Theme:

The main point of the report, as explained by Nelson, is that many of USDA’s new-crop estimates—especially for corn and soybeans—are still somewhat cautious and based on long-term trend yields rather than current, possibly better, growing conditions. Nelson pointed out that the USDA usually avoids changing yield forecasts early in the season, saying, “USDA… has really not wanted to move a yield for corn or soybeans off the trend needle, so to speak.” Because of this, while USDA numbers stay mostly the same, “the markets are trading a different yield number… a view that we’re a little higher than that trend estimate.” For corn, USDA lowered old-crop ending stocks by 25 million bushels due to export issues. For soybeans, ending stocks stayed the same but exports and crop use were slightly adjusted.

The wheat and cotton parts of the report showed more active changes based on up-to-date data. Nelson said the wheat balance sheet is more “real time,” with USDA cutting harvested acres but raising yields, causing a small increase in production. Still, ending stocks dropped, with winter wheat stocks falling from 782 million to 755 million bushels, and there are some concerns about crop quality due to heavy rains at harvest. For cotton, USDA lowered yields by about 9% compared to last year, but higher harvested acres led to more production and increased ending stocks to 4.6 million bales. The beef section showed domestic production down about 3% from last year, but higher imports—especially lean beef from Brazil—are helping to fill the supply gap.

Weather Impact:

Nelson briefly mentioned weather-related concerns when discussing winter wheat. He said there might be “some very light quality concerns with those heavy rains right at harvest,” indicating that recent heavy rainfall could affect the quality of the wheat crop.

Cotton and Livestock Updates:

Nelson discussed the cotton situation by noting that “cotton acres are higher this year,” but yields have declined about 9% compared to last year. He explained that “despite lower yields, total production is actually a little bit higher because of increased harvested acres.” He also pointed out that ending stocks for the new cotton crop are projected to be “4.6 million bales, which is above last year’s 4.1 million and well above the prior years’ 3.2 million.” While yield concerns persist, the acreage gains have helped offset some of the impact, leading to an overall larger stock situation.

Regarding livestock, Nelson said USDA has “lowered beef supply estimates by about 200 million pounds,” which reflects about a 3% production decrease from last year. He attributed this in part to “tighter live animal supplies” and noted challenges such as the renewed closure of the Mexican border and tariff adjustments on Brazilian beef imports, which account for about 2.4% of U.S. beef consumption. Despite the production decline, Rich observed that “high domestic wholesale beef prices suggest strong import activity” is helping to meet demand. He emphasized that while overall beef supplies to consumers remain fairly stable, “the live cattle supply remains tight,” supporting continued strength in prices. Ground beef demand, particularly reliant on lean beef imports including those from Brazil, remains an important factor in the market outlook.

Key Takeaways:

Nelson highlighted several key takeaways from the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. He emphasized that many of the new crop numbers, especially for corn and soybeans, remain somewhat artificial, stating, “These numbers are more or less artificial for now.” He pointed out that the market is currently trading on yield expectations above the USDA’s trend estimates, noting, “The market itself is trading yields above trend, even though a lot of producers may not want to hear that.”

Regarding wheat, Rich found the tightening supply noteworthy, particularly for winter wheat. He mentioned the drop in winter wheat stocks from 782 million bushels last month to 755 million and expressed concern about quality issues due to heavy rains at harvest, saying, “I think there’s really interesting argument right now on that winter wheat picture… maybe there’s some very light quality concerns with those heavy rains right at harvest.” Overall, Rich stressed the importance of watching these evolving supply and quality factors closely, signaling uncertainty and potential tightening in the wheat market.

Looking Ahead to August:

Nelson hinted that the USDA’s next report might include further adjustments, especially on corn stocks. He mentioned there’s still “a bit more in this, in probably next month’s report,” referring to potential additional changes related to old crop corn export issues. This suggests that the market should watch for possible updates or revisions coming in August’s WASDE report that could impact supply estimates.

For those with further questions, Rich Nelson can be reached at 1-800-2-MARKET or through their website, allendalehub.com.

You can also view the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…