In today’s Beef Buzz, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Industry Consultant Dr. Nevil Speer, the focus turned to the question of herd rebuilding. Dr. Speer noted that while there are plenty of opinions on the subject, one of the most reliable indicators remains the cow slaughter rate. “What I watch is the cow slaughter rate. It’s probably as good a litmus test or indicator that we have,” he said. So far this year, he explained, producers are neither aggressively cutting numbers nor retaining large numbers of replacement heifers. As a result, herd size is expected to remain stable heading into January, though not positioned for major growth.
Speer pointed out that high cow prices are also influencing herd dynamics. With cows bringing around $1.80 at the sale barn, producers are more willing to cull older or problem animals. “It’s every incentive to get rid of older cows, or any cow that’s a problem… We’re probably working towards a younger cow herd,” he explained. This shift, he suggested, shows producers are deeply committed to their herds for the next five to ten years, setting the stage for stabilization and gradual growth after several years of contraction.
Genetics will play an important role in this rebuilding phase. Reflecting on the last cycle of herd rebuilding, Speer emphasized that producers are again focused on improving quality. “No question, and it’s exactly what’s happening,” he said. Many cattlemen are intent on culling out cows at the end of their reproductive life while retaining or buying only the best replacement heifers. “We want to get better genetics… no question, we’re going to make the cow herd better,” he added, stressing that quality improvements will be a central feature of this rebuilding process.
When asked whether producer size influences attitudes toward rebuilding, Speer acknowledged differences but said commitment was strong across the board. “The larger producers, they’re really committed to growing the cow herd in the next five years. They understand this is a long play,” he explained. With the financial strength to weather ups and downs, larger operations see opportunities to boost efficiency and productivity, while smaller producers also show enthusiasm for long-term investment.
One area where quality improvements have already made a dramatic impact is the beef-on-dairy model. Speer noted, “It’s just been dramatic what it’s done for our business.” While dairy cow numbers have stayed around nine and a half million, crossbreeding with beef genetics has improved productivity and carcass weights. He added that the beef-on-dairy supply chain provides valuable data feedback loops that have helped the industry steadily refine results—and these lessons could eventually be applied to native beef herds as well.
Technology and traceability are also advancing herd management. Speer highlighted how dairy producers, with tools such as sexed semen and detailed data tracking, are ahead of the beef sector. “They’re traceable. We know right up front where they came from, and we can be able to track them and have data that flows with them,” he explained. This transparency creates stronger financial incentives, with dairies being “rewarded extremely well for high-quality day-old calves.” Some are even feeding out their own calves, recognizing the long-term value.
While not everyone embraces these changes, Speer believes the shift is inevitable. “Every business transitions and you just have to kind of go through that, because this is what’s happening,” he said. Ultimately, he sees these innovations as strengthening the industry and gradually filtering into the beef sector more broadly. His outlook suggests the cattle herd may not expand rapidly, but it will improve in quality, efficiency, and resilience moving forward.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
