On this edition of the Beef Buzz, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays finishes up a conversation with Darrell Peel, Extension livestock market economist at Oklahoma State University. Dr. Peel believes that the ongoing closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to Mexican cattle due to the persistent threat of the New World screwworm is not just a temporary trade disruption, but could permanently reshape global beef markets.
Dr. . Peel expresses concern that Mexico, unable to export its cattle north, may further develop its own processing and export capabilities, ultimately establishing itself as a direct competitor to U.S. beef supplies worldwide.
The border closure, initiated to prevent the re-establishment of the devastating screwworm fly in the U.S., shows no signs of immediate resolution. Secretary Rollins recently reported another case of the screwworm 170 miles from the border, indicating that cattle moving through southern Mexico are breaching existing protocols.
“We continue to see indications that cattle moving from southern Mexico up into the northern parts of Mexico are getting through the protocols, if you will. They’re finding additional cases,” Peel stated. He predicts that the border is unlikely to reopen for the remainder of 2025, with potential long-term, if not permanent, implications for the long-standing bilateral trade relationship between the U.S. and Mexico.
Historically, the U.S. has imported a significant number of cattle from Mexico for feedlot placement. However, with these cattle now held in Mexico, the dynamic is shifting. Mexico has significantly improved its infrastructure for feeding and processing cattle over the past two to three decades, transforming into a notable beef exporting country in its own right.
“If Mexico keeps all these cattle in country… and they sort of figure out how to deal with these cattle that don’t have the opportunity to be exported to the U.S., it may have very long-lasting, if not permanent, implications for the way the two industries work together going forward,” Peel explained. “They basically feed their own cattle and compete directly with us on the global market.”
This could also impact U.S. beef exports to Mexico, as increased domestic production might reduce Mexico’s need for imported U.S. beef. Simultaneously, Mexico would likely cultivate other export markets, further intensifying competition for U.S. producers.
Current Market Conditions and Producer Advice
Peel also provided insights into current cattle markets, noting a recent pullback in live cattle and boxed beef prices that has yet to stabilize. On the feeder cattle side, Oklahoma witnessed an early surge in sales through July, August, and early September, with many unweaned calves hitting auctions sooner than usual due to record summer prices.
“We’ve kind of had an early run,” Peel observed. However, auction volumes have since flipped, indicating tighter supplies. “There’s only so many feeder cattle out there. So we’re probably looking at somewhat tighter supplies, at least in Oklahoma. And obviously overall supplies of feeder cattle are tight. So I look for these feeder cattle markets to stay very strong through the fall, probably with less seasonal pressure here through October and November than we would normally see.”
For producers, Peel’s primary advice remains consistent: adhere to proven practices. “I think the main thing is just to keep doing what you have always done and know you need to do: wean those calves,” he advised. He acknowledges that some producers may have felt pressured to sell early due to record prices but reassures that strong markets will persist. “I think they’re going to be there certainly for the rest of 2025. So go ahead and wean those calves. They are worth more if they’re weaned and backgrounded and preconditioned. And so do those things. The value will be there. It’s good for the industry and it will be good for the producer.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
