Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry as part of the weekly series known as the “Cow Calf Corner,” published electronically by Dr. Peel, Mark Johnson, and Paul Beck.
Boxed beef cutout values peaked at Labor Day and fell through September. On a daily basis, the Choice boxed beef cutout peaked on September 3 at $416.01/cwt. and bottomed one month later on October 3 at $362.27/cwt. before stabilizing. Fall is when beef demand transitions from a grilling focus to cool-weather crock pot cooking and back-to-school restaurant traffic.
Figure 1 shows weekly prices for popular steak products. Beef tenderloin, after being relatively weak in 2024 and early 2025, has increased sharply in the third quarter (Figure 1 A). Tenderloins are typically strong in the fall and winter as restaurant traffic increases, with a bump in May for Mother’s Day. Panel B in Figure 1 shows wholesale ribeye, strong going into summer and again in the fall in anticipation of restaurant holiday Prime Rib demand. Strip loins were very strong in the first half of the year, then dropped sharply mid-summer before stabilizing the last few weeks (Figure 1 C). Top sirloin, popular for summer grilling, peaked mid-summer and has declined seasonally through the third quarter of the year (Figure 1 D). All of these wholesale values are well above year-ago levels.
Figure 2 shows current strength in Chuck arm roast (Figure 2 A) and eye of round prices (Figure 2 B). Chuck and round products have more diverse demands compared to steak items. Though not as popular during summer grilling, chuck and round products may be demanded for value retail cuts, at-home slow-cooking, exports, or for grinding. Very strong prices for lean trimmings this year have pulled more round products into ground beef markets this year (Figure 2 D). Summer ground beef demand has likely peaked seasonally but tight lean supplies will keep ground beef prices elevated. Brisket values have decreased from an early fall peak but remain popular year-around (Figure 2 C).
Fall and winter weather and the upcoming holiday season change the relative demands for various beef products, but overall beef demand continues strong. Wholesale and retail beef prices will be supported by strong demand and continued decreases in beef production.
Derrell Peel, OSU Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, shares key insights from his presentation at the 2025 Rural Economic Outlook Conference, focusing on current livestock market trends and challenges on SunUpTV from October 11, 2025 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtBvirELhns.
