OSU agricultural economist John Michael Riley says the impact of President Trump’s recent trade discussions in Asia has left markets waiting for clarity. He explains that while China indicated plans to purchase U.S. soybeans, “the market is very much in limbo as to when and how much those potential sales are going to actually happen.” Riley adds that long-term expectations remain uncertain, especially with competition coming as “our South American countries are going to be in harvest.”
Turning to cotton, Riley notes that Oklahoma’s crop is essentially done for the season, but the market itself is unsettled. He says cotton is “for the most part, fully complete here in Oklahoma,” yet prices remain unstable, with recent drops in oil prices and mixed signals from currency shifts. Overall, he describes the cotton market as “just on shaky ground right now.”
As wheat planting wraps up, Riley says producers have entered a management phase, watching markets for opportunities. Wheat, corn, and soybeans all saw some support from recent trade talk momentum, creating “some potential marketing opportunities” for farmers holding grain. However, Riley cautions that “basis remains very weak… across all of Oklahoma,” meaning many producers may benefit from delaying sales “if you can handle that from a cash flow standpoint.”
Looking ahead, Riley highlights the importance of the upcoming WASDE report, which USDA confirmed will be released despite government shutdown concerns. He notes the market expects “a slight reduction in corn yield,” though uncertainty is high given the long stretch since the last official report. As he prepares to depart his role on SUNUP, Riley reflects that he “really enjoyed our opportunities to visit on a bi-weekly basis,” and welcomes his successor, saying he looks forward to “what Dr. Todd Hubbs is going to bring to the table.”
This week on SUNUP:
- Amy Hagerman, OSU Extension agricultural policy specialist, discusses the reopening of the U.S. Government and the impacts the extended Farm Bill programs will have on Oklahoma producers.
- SUNUP previews the upcoming Rancher’s Thursday Lunch Time Series.
- SUNUP travels to Jackson County to meet with Clint Abernathy, a cotton producer who, after several challenging growing years, finally has a crop to harvest. We also talk with Jenny Dudak, OSU Extension cotton specialist.
- In the Mesonet weather report, Emma White, OSU Extension Mesonet agricultural meteorologist, discusses the recent cold spell before looking at the average rainfall for November. State climatologist Gary McManus says drought is expanding.
- In Market Monitor, John Michael Riley, OSU agricultural economist, has information on the latest trade news, cotton prices and the anticipation of the next WASDE report.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Mark Johnson, OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist, begins his new SUNUP series on replacement heifers and the important role they will play in the cattle markets in the future.
- Finally, SUNUP learns what makes Robert Hodgen a 2025 Distinguished Alumnus of the Ferguson College of Agriculture.
