After a 43-day government shutdown, the USDA finally released its updated production and demand reports on Friday. Post-Shutdown USDA Report and Allendale’s Rich Nelson say the new numbers were “a little disappointing” for producers hoping for a market rally, according to Nelson.
The data, which is the first major update since September 12, was released alongside a compiled list of all missed overnight export sales, which also failed to impress the trade.
“Disappointing all around for corn, soybeans and wheat,” Nelson said.
Here is a breakdown of the key numbers and what they mean for producers.
🌾 Wheat: The “Bigger Issue”
The most significant bearish news came from the wheat market. Nelson noted that wheat ending stocks “jumped… up to 901 million bushels,” which was higher than anticipated.
While a production increase was already known from a report in late September, Nelson said the market was hit with two additional pieces of bad news.
- Stagnant Exports: “Exports were not raised here for the US side,” he said.
- Increased Competition: “They really raised a lot of the foreign competitors. In fact, foreign competition [is] up 11 million metric tons just on this report alone.”
🌽 Corn: “A Little Disappointing”
For corn, the market was anticipating a significant yield decline, but the USDA’s cut was small. “We saw yield declines in this case, just 0.7 bushels,” Nelson stated, adding that the resulting stock number of 2.15 billion bushels is “certainly” adequate.
🌱 Soybeans: China Deal Fails to Appear in Data
Soybeans also saw a “slight yield decline” of just 0.5 bushels per acre. More surprisingly, the USDA lowered its export forecast by 50 million bushels.
Nelson pointed out that the much-discussed 12-million-ton trade deal with China is not materializing in the sales data. The compiled overnight sales report showed “no sign yet of large enough sales to justify the 12 million ton discussion,” with sales to China during the shutdown period totaling only 332,000 tons.
🤠 Cotton: Good Crop, Large Supply
While Oklahoma producers are seeing one of their best cotton crops in years due to “timely rains” and a “timely freeze,” that positive production news was reflected nationally, pushing supply up without a matching increase in demand.
USDA’s report showed a national yield jump to 919 pounds per acre, up from 886. However, Nelson said, “USD did not offset this with a good jump in exports.” As a result, ending stocks for cotton jumped from 3.6 million bales in September to 4.3 million. “We certainly… are reflecting a large supply environment right now,” he added.
🥩 Livestock: A Mixed Bag
The livestock numbers were moderately positive for beef producers, as the USDA lowered beef production forecasts for both 2025 and 2026. While the market has been concerned about a potential flood of imports from Argentina and Brazil, Nelson noted a positive surprise: “USD did not change any import numbers on this report.”
He said this suggests the USDA is “more or less waiting to see what actually does happen here.”
Pork producers, however, saw little good news, as a slight production decline for 2025 was offset by an increase in 2026, meaning the expected drop in production “is only going to be minimal.”
🗓️ Looking Ahead: The Shutdown’s Lingering Impact
While the major reports are out, Nelson said it will still take “quite a few weeks ahead to clear up the complete backlog in the weekly export sales numbers.” Furthermore, key data on cattle weights has not been released since the second week of September.
Looking forward, Nelson said the December WASDE report is “typically… relatively quiet.” The next “real big show” will be on January 12, which will feature the Annual Production Summary, the Quarterly Grain Stocks report, and the first look at Winter Wheat Seedings.
Producers looking for more information can contact Allendale at 1-800-262-7538 or visit Allendale-Inc.com.
