Farm Director KC Sheperd spoke with Joe Schuele of the U.S. Meat Export Federation, who began with a discussion about the Trump administration’s tariff strategy and whether the tariffs were “working.” Joe Schuele clarified that, from the U.S. Meat Export Federation’s perspective, the key issue is not whether tariffs work broadly, but whether U.S. red meat is suffering collateral effects. He explained that “for the most part, no,” because many trading partners “have not retaliated” and have instead chosen negotiation. He specifically praised Mexico, noting, “I actually give Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum a lot of credit for that,” because Mexico was among the first hit with tariffs but opted for negotiation rather than retaliation.
Schuele contrasted Mexico’s approach with China’s, emphasizing that China “did go right to retaliation” and that its actions have significantly harmed U.S. meat exports. He explained that U.S. pork “still faces a 47% tariff entering China,” while beef faces 22%, but the larger challenge is China’s non-tariff retaliation, which has “made most of our plants ineligible.” While most global markets have maintained demand and avoided retaliation, China remains the main source of trade-related damage for the industry. As he put it, “We really need to get those obstacles addressed with China.”
The conversation then turned to producers’ frustration over how long they can wait for a resolution. Schuele emphasized strong domestic demand as an important buffer. He noted that about “85% of the beef we produce in the U.S. is consumed right here” and roughly “70% of the pork” as well. He stressed that this stability helps the industry weather trade disruptions, but he also underscored the importance of continued export access, saying, “we still need strong market access” and especially need progress with China.
Looking ahead, Schuele highlighted opportunities in regions where U.S. access is currently limited. He pointed to Latin America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe as markets with significant potential if barriers can be reduced. “If we can get some gains there,” he said, “we could come out the other side of this in a better position.” Despite current challenges, he conveyed optimism that ongoing negotiations could open doors that strengthen the long-term competitiveness of U.S. red meat.
The discussion also revisited past trade successes, especially the U.S.–China Phase One agreement. Schuele explained that Phase One “really gave us beef meaningful access to China for the first time” since the BSE-related closure. While the market partially reopened in 2017, it was Phase One in 2020 that brought access “in a meaningful and profitable way,” leading to “over $2 billion in exports shortly thereafter.” However, he noted that China has since “backslid on its Phase One commitments,” leaving the U.S. locked out of much of that opportunity.
Schuele stressed the broader economic consequences of losing China—not only in direct export losses but in the indirect drag on prices in other Asian markets. Cuts that are popular in Asia, such as “short plate and short ribs and chuck rolls,” would command higher prices if “all those Chinese buyers” were competing for them. He emphasized that the industry is not asking governments to set import volumes, only to restore access: “We’ll let the market sort that out. But we need access. We need meaningful access. We need the Chinese government to just get out of the way.”
