Farm director KC Sheperd spoke with Michael Langemeier of Purdue University, who began with an introduction to the Ag Economy Barometer, a monthly survey conducted by Purdue to track the sentiment of U.S. agricultural producers. Langemeier explained that the survey has been ongoing for about a decade and involves polling 400 producers every month. “We survey folks in the middle of each month, and then we report the results the first Tuesday of each month,” he said, emphasizing the regularity and structure of the study.
Langemeier highlighted the differences in optimism between crop and livestock producers. Crop producers have shown relatively low optimism due to weaker net returns, while livestock producers remain highly optimistic, especially in the short term. Despite short-term differences, he noted that both groups are generally positive about the long-term outlook. He explained, “Part of the optimism is related to what I call the long-run policy environment,” suggesting that confidence in government policies has a strong influence on overall sentiment.
Trade policy emerged as a particularly significant factor this year. Langemeier pointed out that while crop producers were concerned about exports, particularly soybeans to China, many producers displayed patience. When asked if trade and tariffs would strengthen U.S. agriculture in the next five years, about 60% of respondents answered affirmatively. He added that 70% believe the U.S. is on the “right track,” demonstrating that long-term optimism remains robust despite short-term uncertainties.
The Ag Economy Barometer also tracks broader trends over time. Langemeier explained the influence of policy on sentiment: “If they think the policy is going in the wrong direction, sentiment goes down; if they’re more optimistic about where policy is heading, sentiment goes up.” He noted three major policy areas impacting producers: the Farm Bill, monetary policy, and trade policy, with trade being particularly critical in the current context.
Regarding survey methodology, Langemeier clarified how participants are selected. A Kansas City-based company conducts phone surveys using lists from farm groups, targeting specific percentages of crop and livestock producers to reflect U.S. production. He stressed that only full-time farmers are surveyed to ensure consistent results: “I’m convinced that if we did a survey of part-time and full-time, the sentiment would be different.”
Langemeier reflected on particularly high or surprising results in the past. When separating sentiment by sector, he was struck by the contrast: “The sentiment for livestock was over 150. The crop was down 110 some place in there.” He also noted that optimism often correlates with growth intentions or plans to bring family members into the farm business, providing additional context for variations in producer sentiment.
The Ag Economy Barometer serves as a valuable resource for farmers, agribusinesses, and the farm press. Langemeier described how the survey informs discussions at meetings and outreach events, saying, “Farmers are kind of interested in what other people think. It’s just like when you talk to a group of Indiana producers, they like it. If I tell some stories about what’s going on in Nebraska…they have a certain sentiment about how they think things are heading.”
Finally, Langemeier explained how producers and others can access the survey results. The reports are published on the Ag Economy Barometer website and are updated monthly: “The first Tuesday of every survey is always mid-month, and you can sign up to get the email about it.” This ensures that anyone interested can track trends in agricultural sentiment over time, comparing current and historical data to better understand the broader economic environment.
