State Climatologist Gary McManus Forecasts 70-Degree Temps and Zero Chance of Snow this Christmas. The cold snap that recently hit Oklahoma is already on its way out, setting the stage for a significantly warmer—and drier—holiday week. In a recent interview, State Climatologist Gary McManus told Farm Director KC Sheperd that the recent chilly temperatures were the result of a “big blob of cold air” from the northeast that is moving quickly, rather than a lingering air mass from the Rockies.
“When we see those come in, they tend to disappear pretty quickly,” McManus said. “By Saturday, we’ll be up in the 70s over parts of the state, probably. So, yeah, welcome to Christmastime.”
A Pattern of Warmth This warming trend fits a larger pattern Oklahoma has experienced since mid-September. McManus noted that with the exception of a few cold days in late October and November, the state has remained in a temperature regime that is consistently above normal.
Drought Conditions Persist in Southern Oklahoma. As temperatures rise, soil moisture remains a concern, particularly compared with last year. McManus noted that Oklahoma had its wettest November on record last year, but this year has been markedly different.
Although recent rains improved conditions in northern and southeastern Oklahoma, approximately 30 percent of the state remains in drought. The hardest-hit areas are in the southern half of the state, with severe and extreme drought centered on Kiowa County in the southwest and the region stretching from Duncan to Ada in the southeast.
“We’re not doing too bad across the northern half of the state other than just north of Stillwater,” McManus observed. “But we just need more rain. That’s the only cure that we have.”
Outlook: Dry End to 2025 Producers hoping for relief before the New Year are likely to be disappointed. McManus stated that the forecast for the next 7 to 10 days looks “pretty dry across the state” and will likely remain that way through the end of the year.
“We are in the driest part of the year right now… through February,” McManus explained. “So we don’t normally expect big-time relief when we’re in these drought situations.”
Dreaming of a White Christmas? For those hoping for a repeat of the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009, the forecast offers no hope. McManus confirmed that chances for a white Christmas are effectively zero.
“It looks like it’s going to be warm,” McManus said. “Other than a few cold fronts here and there, warm and dry through the rest of December.”
While climatological odds for snow in Oklahoma are generally low—ranging from 15 percent in the north to less than 10 percent in central Oklahoma—this year’s forecast is definitive. Families can expect temperatures near 70 degrees and windy conditions for their holiday celebrations.
“If you’re driving to grandma’s house, you should be fine,” McManus added.
This dryness is partly due to a weak La Niña pattern, which typically influences Oklahoma’s weather during this time. However, McManus noted that La Niña is expected to fade into neutral conditions as the state moves into the later parts of winter and early spring.
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