As 2025 winds down and the holiday season approaches, grain markets are digesting a flurry of data released by the USDA following recent delays. Oklahoma Farm Report Farm Director KC Sheperd recently sat down with Oklahoma State University Extension Crop Marketing Specialist Dr. Todd Hubbs to unpack the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and what the numbers mean for producers heading into 2026.
While corn exports remain a bright spot, the wheat market has faced significant headwinds, establishing a challenging landscape for the start of the new year.
A “Brutal” Week for Wheat
The most immediate concern for local producers is the sharp decline in wheat prices. Following the release of the WASDE report, the market reacted negatively to data showing increased global supplies.
“It’s brutal today,” Hubbs said regarding the recent market performance. “We’re setting new contract lows in the futures market for KC Hard Red. The run down started last Friday and the bears are moving.”
While the USDA report did confirm slightly bearish news—including production increases for major global exporters—Hubbs expressed surprise at the severity of the sell-off.
“I thought some of that was baked into the market already,” Hubbs noted. “We keep finding more bushels around the world for sure… but nothing that would maybe spur this kind of huge run down over three days to set new contract lows.”
Despite the “ugly” turn, Hubbs remains in a “wait and see” mode, hopeful that the market is nearing a bottom rather than entering a new, lower trading range before the end of the year.
Corn Hanged Tough While Soybeans Face Pressure
In contrast to wheat, the corn market is finding support through robust demand. Hubbs highlighted that the U.S. is currently the source of the cheapest corn on the global market, driving “unbelievable” export numbers during a window typically dominated by soybeans.
“Corn’s hanging in there,” Hubbs said. “We’ve seen just unbelievable corn export numbers. I don’t see it stopping… until something changes in that space, I think we can still see these really strong corn export numbers.”
Soybeans, however, are struggling alongside wheat. With favorable weather reports coming out of South America—particularly for the crucial growing seasons in Brazil and Argentina—pressure is mounting. Additionally, promised purchases from China have yet to materialize at the scale expected.
“The market’s saying ‘prove it,'” Hubbs explained regarding China’s trade deal commitments. “Until we see them start making buys to push them up into that kind of quantity range, I think beans are going to stay under pressure.”
Marketing Advice for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, Hubbs advised producers to prepare for continued price pressure barring any major market shocks. The key, he says, is preparation and discipline.
“You need to be monitoring the markets, setting some target prices that you think you can live with, and setting up a plan in place,” Hubbs advised. “If prices do somehow get to these targets, let’s do some sales. And this is old crop and new crop.”
Hubbs emphasized the importance of knowing your budget and being ready to pull the trigger on sales if targets are hit, even for spring crops that haven’t been planted yet.
“I know it’s sometimes hard to pull the trigger on something like that this early… but I’d keep it in mind because the price pressure is real,” Hubbs warned.
Stay Informed
Dr. Hubbs provides a weekly newsletter containing in-depth market analysis and data. To subscribe to the update, producers can email him directly at todd.hubbs@okstate.edu.
