For the USDA Cattle on Feed report scheduled for release on December 19, 2025, analysts anticipate a continued tightening of supplies across several key metrics compared to the previous year.
The following are the average pre-report guesses from industry analysts:
- On Feed (Dec 1 Inventory): Expected to be down approximately 1.7% to 2% from last year. Estimates range from 98% to 98.4% of year-ago levels, totaling roughly 11.78 million head.
- Placements (November): Projected to be down significantly, with average guesses at -7.6% to -8.2%. A primary factor cited for lower placements is the ongoing suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico due to screwworm concerns.
- Marketings (November): Expected to show a major decline, estimated at down 11.3% to 11.6%. This decrease is partly due to November 2025 having one fewer marketing day compared to last year, as well as a general slowdown in the pace of cattle moving out of feedlots.
| Metric | Average Analyst Guess (Year-over-Year) |
|---|---|
| On Feed (Dec 1) | 98.0% – 98.3% |
| Placements (Nov) | 91.8% – 92.4% |
| Marketings (Nov) | 88.4% – 88.7% |
There are several factors that are playing into what the December Cattle on Feed Report may tell us:
- Import Restrictions: The continued ban on Mexican cattle imports is hitting Texas feedlots particularly hard, contributing to the lower overall placement numbers.
- Heifer Retention: Some analysts suggest that lower placements may also reflect early signs of ranchers retaining heifers for herd rebuilding, though this remains a slow process.
- “Market-Ready” Supplies: Despite lower total on-feed numbers, some reports indicate that cattle are staying on feed longer, which could lead to a higher inventory of market-ready animals with over 120 days on feed compared to 2024.
After the report, the Oklahoma Farm Report will be talking with OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel about the numbers and how they may prepare us for the January Cattle Inventory Report next year.
