Statewide Overview Oklahoma is facing a week of unseasonably warm temperatures and continued dry conditions. While meteorologists do not expect “critical” fire weather—characterized by extreme winds and low humidity—the underlying fire danger remains significant.
The primary concern this week is the condition of the vegetation (fuels). A recent period of accelerated drying, combined with a lack of “wetting” rainfall, has led to the full curing of dormant fuels. Consequently, resistance to control has increased in many areas. While fires may not spread at critical speeds, they may require longer durations and more resources to contain.
The overall outlook for the week suggests low to moderate potential for large fires (over 300 acres), but initial attack crews remain active.
Today’s Forecast: The Warming Trend Begins
A notable warming trend starts today. Generally, good overnight moisture recovery will delay the start of the burning period until midday. However, as the afternoon progresses, dry air will settle over the western tiers of the state.
- Winds: Southerly winds will remain generally light (less than 15 mph).
- Fire Spread: In grass-dominated fuels, fire spread potential is expected to stay below 150 ft/min.
Regional Breakdowns
Oklahoma Panhandle & Northwest This region will see the highest temperatures, tapping 80° in the Panhandle under mostly clear skies.
- Humidity: Dropping significantly to 10% in Cimarron County and around 30% in Major County.
- Fuel Moisture: Fine dead fuel moisture will drop to a critical 4-6%.
- Fire Behavior: Rangeland fuels could support head fire rates of spread between 75–140 ft/min with flame lengths of 9–13 ft.
Western & Southwestern Oklahoma Afternoon temperatures will warm into the 69°–77° range.
- Winds: Southwest winds sustained at 10–14 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
- Fire Behavior: Moderate fire spread potential is expected. Where fuels align with wind and topography, rates of spread could near 165 ft/min.
North-Central & Northeastern Oklahoma Higher dewpoints in this region will keep relative humidity above 30%, moderating fire danger compared to the west.
- Fire Behavior: Grass fuels will see spread rates of 95–130 ft/min, while timber fuels will see much slower spread (+/- 25 ft/min). Initial attack efforts are expected to remain successful.
South-Central & Southeastern Oklahoma Despite higher humidity (struggling to drop below 40%), timber fuels are becoming increasingly active due to the lack of leaf cover shading and absence of rain/snow compaction.
- Fire Behavior: Timber litter will see slow spread rates (+/- 25 ft/min) with flame lengths averaging 3.5–5 ft.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday Outlook The warm trend continues with temperatures in the 70s statewide. Winds will remain light (southerly, below 10 mph), except in the southwest where they may pick up slightly. This should afford fire crews a very good opportunity for successful initial attacks on any new starts.
Long-Term Outlook Warm and dry conditions will persist through the week, intensifying the “Energy Release Component” of fuels—a measure of the potential heat energy available to a fire. This leads to elevated resistance to control.
- Rain Chances: There is a signal for low rainfall chances on Saturday, but coverage and amounts appear limited.
- Temperature Shift: A cold front approaches Sunday, offering cooler (though still relatively warm) temperatures.
- 8-14 Day Forecast: Models suggest above-normal temperatures will hold, with only a slight optimism for moisture. It is important to note that Oklahoma is nearing its climatologically driest period of the year.
