Oklahomans dreaming of a White Christmas will instead be greeted by potential record-breaking warmth—and with it, elevated fire danger. A statewide fire weather outlook indicates that while most of the state will see tempered wildfire potential due to good overnight moisture recovery, the Panhandle and western tier counties face a different reality today and on Christmas Day.
Christmas Eve Conditions For today, the highest fire danger is concentrated in the Panhandle and Northwestern Oklahoma. As a cold front eases out of the area, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70s under partly cloudy skies.
With relative humidity dropping between 12% and 22% and southwest winds increasing to 9-15 mph, the conditions are ripe for moderate fire spread. Fire officials note that rangeland fuels in these areas could exhibit head fire rates of spread between 105 and 140 feet per minute.
For the rest of the state—including Central and Eastern Oklahoma—the outlook is more moderate. Excellent overnight moisture and morning fog have helped stall drying conditions. With afternoon relative humidity values remaining above 45% for most of the state, any fires that do start are expected to be manageable, with high success rates for initial containment.
Christmas Day Outlook The unseasonable weather continues into Thursday. A brief period of elevated fire weather is expected to develop in the afternoon on Christmas Day, again favoring the western tier of the state and the Texas Panhandle.
While the probability of successful initial attack remains high, the persistent dry conditions and record warmth mean new wildfires are possible. The active burning window on Christmas is expected to be relatively short, confined to about three hours in the afternoon before sunset moderates conditions.
Weekend Forecast Looking ahead, the above-normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. This trend will likely spur elevated fire weather over dry, dormant fuels in western Oklahoma again on Saturday.
A cold front is projected to move south across the state on Sunday, bringing temperatures back to more seasonal levels for next week. However, there is little to no optimism for rainfall associated with this front, meaning the dry spell for the region will likely continue.
To see the latest Burn Bans, click here;
