After a Monday that proved breezier and drier than anticipated, Oklahoma faces another day of elevated fire danger. While wind speeds are expected to decrease today, extremely low humidity levels will keep the fire spread potential in the “moderate” range across much of the state.
Forecasters note that fire weather conditions yesterday were stronger than predicted, drying out vegetation faster than expected. That drying trend continues today, particularly west and south of Interstate 40, where relative humidity values are expected to drop below 25%.
Today’s Outlook: Low Humidity, Lighter Winds
The primary concern for Tuesday is the dry air. While wind speeds are expected to hover around a manageable 10 mph, the dry atmosphere means that grass and timber fuels are highly receptive to fire.
- Western & Southwestern Oklahoma: This region faces the highest risk today. With temperatures reaching the low 70s and humidity dropping as low as 13%, rangeland fires could spread at rates of 75–105 feet per minute with flame lengths potentially reaching 14 feet.
- Panhandle & Northwest: Any benefit from recent snowmelt in the Panhandle is rapidly evaporating. As a cold front approaches this afternoon, winds may shift, but fire spread potential remains moderate.
- Northeast & Southeast: These areas will see similar moderate conditions. In the South-Central region, dormant grass fires could still move quickly (up to 125 ft/min), and there is a potential for “torching” in mixed fuel areas.
Officials warn that while the probability of successfully containing fires remains high today, there is a conditional risk for large fires if they become established in areas with heavy fuel loading.
Wednesday: Winds Ramp Up
A dry cold front is set to pass through the state overnight, changing the dynamic for Wednesday.
While temperatures will cool down into the 50s and humidity levels will recover slightly (above 35%), the winds will increase significantly. Forecasters expect sustained north winds with gusts topping 30 mph. Although the weather conditions won’t perfectly align to hit “critical” thresholds, the high winds mean that any wildfire that does get established could be difficult to control and has the potential to become a large fire.
Weekend Outlook
Dry conditions are expected to hold firm through the upcoming weekend. Another frontal boundary is forecast to arrive early Friday, which will likely increase wind speeds again. By the weekend, Western Oklahoma could see “near-critical” fire weather as the persistent dryness combines with the wind, likely prompting an uptick in initial attack activity for firefighters.
Residents are strongly urged to check for County Burn Bans and exercise extreme caution with any outdoor activities that could spark a flame.
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