Todd Hubbs Breaks Down ‘Brutal’ USDA Report: Corn Glut and Surprise Wheat Acres in Oklahoma: Oklahoma State University Extension Crop Marketing Specialist Dr. Todd Hubbs did not mince words when reviewing the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released this week, describing them as a “brutal set of reports” for the agricultural sector.
In a recent conversation with Farm Director KC Sheperd, Hubbs noted that surging supplies are creating bearish headwinds for producers despite strong demand.
Corn Supply Weighs Heavily on Markets. The most significant pressure is coming from the corn market. Hubbs noted that the reported corn yield of 186.5 bushels per acre was much higher than anticipated, and the USDA also identified more harvested acres than previously expected.
“We’ve just got an unbelievably large supply of corn this year… well over 18 billion bushels,” Hubbs said. While he acknowledged that export demand remains strong due to low prices, the sheer volume of supply is overwhelming the market. “Those corn numbers are going to hang over all the markets for the foreseeable future,” he added.
Oklahoma’s Wheat Acreage Surprise: While national winter wheat acreage remained relatively flat, Oklahoma provided a distinct outlier in the data. Hubbs reported that Oklahoma producers planted 4.8 million acres of winter wheat—a 16% increase over last year.
“I think [that] may be a surprise to those of us in the state,” Hubbs said, noting that while he had heard mixed reports, the data confirms a significant jump in local planting despite dry conditions.
However, the global wheat landscape remains fiercely competitive. Hubbs cited higher crop estimates from Russia and Argentina as factors slowing U.S. export sales. “The competition is fierce out of the Black Sea, out of the EU, and out of Australia,” Hubbs explained.
Weather and Marketing Strategy Despite the dry conditions currently plaguing the Southern Plains, Hubbs warned producers not to bank solely on a weather-driven price rally. Even if U.S. production drops due to drought, global stocks are high enough to dampen potential price spikes.
“It’s very hard to get a rally… because of the acreage trade-off that goes on,” Hubbs said.
His advice for producers entering the 2026 crop year is grounded in financial discipline. He urged farmers to know their break-even points, utilize government safety nets, and be ready to sell if weather scares provide temporary price bumps.
“If we do see some rallies on the weather… you might think about pricing some,” Hubbs advised. “It at times takes a long time to get back to where you were when you saw a big rally”.
South American Soybean Behemoth The outlook for soybeans offered little relief, with Hubbs pointing to a massive crop emerging from South America. With favorable production in Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, U.S. exports are facing stiff competition. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding biofuel policies and trade is clouding the demand picture for soy oil.
“In general, [it was a] pretty bearish report,” Hubbs concluded, “mostly for corn, but that spills over”.
