After weeks of heightened concern, fire danger across Oklahoma is relaxing today. A shift in weather patterns—bringing cooler temperatures, calmer winds, and improved humidity—is helping to temper the risk of significant wildfires statewide. While the underlying conditions remain dry, forestry officials anticipate a much-needed break in fire activity throughout the week.
The Current Situation
The immediate threat of large, uncontrollable wildfires has decreased significantly. Although dry conditions persist across most of the state, the specific weather ingredients required for rapid fire growth are absent today.
- Cooler Temperatures & Clouds: Highs in the 30s and 40s, combined with mostly cloudy skies, are shading vegetation (“fuels”) and reducing their ability to catch fire easily.
- Calmer Winds: Unlike the gusty conditions seen late last week, winds are lighter today, generally sustained around 7 to 13 mph from the northeast.
- Precipitation Potential: There are chances for snow flurries along and north of I-40. While this may not significantly improve deep soil moisture immediately, it helps dampen fine surface fuels like dry grass.
Officials note that while new fires may still start, they are expected to be captured quickly during the “initial attack” phase, meaning firefighters should have high success rates in suppressing them before they grow large.
Regional Breakdown
Weather conditions vary slightly across the state, but the trend of lowered risk is consistent.
- Western & Southwestern Oklahoma: Temperatures are hovering in the 30s to around 40°F. With relative humidity above 30% and winds around 11 mph, any new fires in rangeland areas will likely spread slowly (max rates around 75 ft/min), making them manageable for fire crews.
- The Panhandle & Northwest: Residents may see morning snow flurries with some low-end accumulation possible in northwestern counties. The cold air and higher humidity are keeping the “ignition component” low, meaning it is difficult for new fires to start.
- North-Central & Northeast: Conditions here mirror the northwest, offering little cause for concern today. Fire spread rates are predicted to remain low (generally less than 75 ft/min), offering excellent opportunities for suppression.
- South-Central & Southeast: This region remains the driest, with relative humidity dipping between 23% and 33%. However, the cloud cover and cool temperatures (36°-48°F) are preventing the dry vegetation from becoming critically receptive to fire. Fire spread rates in grassy areas are expected to stay under 85 ft/min.
Weekly Outlook: A Speed Bump in Fire Season
Looking ahead, the forecast suggests a temporary “speed bump” in the fire danger that has dominated January so far. The 7-Day forecast indicates potential for rain and wintry weather later this week.
- Midweek: The best opportunity for “wetting rainfall” (rain significant enough to improve fuel moisture) is expected in Southeastern Oklahoma.
- Late Week: More widespread wintry weather is possible, which would further suppress fire danger.
The Long Term View: While this week offers relief, the Oklahoma Forestry Services (OFS) will continue monitoring composite fuel moisture. The expectation is that dry conditions may return leading into February, so residents should remain vigilant even as the immediate danger subsides.
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