Beef exports were down 12.6 percent year over year through the first ten months of 2025 (Figure 1). This follows decreases in 2023 and 2024 from record beef exports in 2022. Decreased beef exports were anticipated in the current environment of decreased beef production and record high beef prices in the U.S. Beef exports were additionally impacted negatively in 2025 by tariffs and trade wars.
South Korea and Japan were the two largest beef export markets through October. South Korea was up 3.0 percent year over year while Japan was down 3.3 percent compared to the same period in 2024. South Korea gained market share to exceed Japan fractionally by October. Both markets had a market share of 24.1 percent for the year to date. Beef exports to Mexico were down 11.8 percent year over year through October. Mexico is the number three market in 2025, with an 11.5 percent share of beef exports, up from fourth place a year earlier. For the January-October period, beef exports to number five Canada were down 7.4 percent, with Canada having a 9.1 percent share of total beef exports. Taiwan was the number six market with a ten-month export total down 10.6 percent year over year and a 6.5 percent share of beef exports.
The combined export market of China/Hong Kong was the most impacted in 2025, dropping from third to fourth place with total exports through October down 48.9 percent year over year (Figure 1). For the year to date, China/Hong Kong had a 10.9 percent share of total exports, down from 18.7 percent share in 2024.
China and Hong Kong are, in many ways, a single market, which is why beef export data for China and Hong Kong are frequently combined. However, there are some important differences that impacted beef exports in 2025. Figure 2 shows the history of beef exports to China and Hong Kong in recent years. Prior to official U.S. access to China in 2017, Hong Kong was a major beef export market. In 2016, Hong Kong was the number four export market with an 11.5 percent share of total beef exports. It was widely recognized that a significant portion of beef exports to Hong Kong were transshipped into China. Starting in 2020, as beef exports to China were officially possible and recognized, beef exports to Hong Kong decreased as expected. Hong Kong’s share of total exports to China/Hong Kong decreased from 100 percent in 2016 to 14 percent in the 2022-2024 period.
The distinction between the two markets became important again in 2025. In response to U.S. tariffs, retaliatory tariffs imposed by China essentially closed China as an export destination starting in April. In October, China represented 0.7 percent of beef exports and year to date exports to China alone were down 96.8 percent year over year. However, Hong Kong did not impose the same retaliatory tariffs as China so beef exports to Hong Kong have increased year over year, and Hong Kong once again represents more than 88 percent of total beef exports to China/Hong Kong (Figure 2).
Beef exports are expected to decline further in 2026 as the impacts of declining U.S. beef production, high beef prices and continued political wrangling are felt. The impact of declining beef exports has been largely masked relative to record domestic cattle and beef prices and has not received a great deal of attention in the industry. However, decreased beef exports and lost international market share may impact cattle and beef markets for many years going forward.
