Below, read a statement on the 2023 Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report by Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Specialist, Kim Anderson:
A Reuters survey of market analysts’ predictions of the USDA’s U.S. 2023 Winter Wheat Seedings show that the average of the analysts’ predictions was 34.485 million acres. The analysts’ highest estimate was 36.2 million acres. The USDA estimate came in at 36.95 million acres. The analyst’s average estimate was seven percent below USDA’s estimate.
The average of the analysts’ hard red winter (HRW) wheat seedings predictions was 23.8 million acres with a high estimate of 25 million acres. USDA estimates HRW seedings to be 25.3 million acres. The analysts missed the HRW seedings by five percent.
After the seedings estimate was released, the KE July ’23 wheat contract price was up about 12 cents.
This implies that the relatively large increase in wheat planted acres was more than offset by tight U.S. and world wheat stocks, current drought conditions and the forecast of continued dry conditions.
Since December 1, 2022, prices for 2023 harvested wheat delivered to Medford, Oklahoma has been between $7.50 and $8.50. At this writing, wheat may be forward contracted in Medford for harvest delivery for $7.71.
Between now and the 2023 harvest, weather will be the major price factor. The world needs wheat and Oklahoma’s wheat is one of the next wheat crops to be harvested that will be available for export. A short crop would indicate higher prices.
An above-average crop could result in lower prices.
Russian wheat exports are the joker in the deck.
To view the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report posted by USDA-NASS on January 12, 2023, click here.
