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USMEF Battles Stronger Dollar and Australia for U.S. Beef Exports, Analysis from CEO Phil Seng

 

U.S. beef exports have had their challenges worldwide in 2015. U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Phil Seng said the worldwide trade in beef has been down, as well as for the United States. To date, U.S. beef exports are down about 12 percent on volume and about eight percent on value.   The U.S. has been challenged in having a stronger U.S. dollar, which makes it more difficult to compete in a global market place. Seng said the U.S. dollar has appreciated by 20 percent. That has made U.S. beef and other products 20 percent more expensive around the world.


U.S. beef exports to Japan are down about 15 percent. Seng attributes that to Australia and Japan reaching their Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). This provides the Australians with a ten percent duty on frozen beef and about an eight percent duty on chilled beef. Seng said the Australians are working very hard to establish themselves in that market.


The structure of the Australian beef industry is also changing, which is putting the country in direct competition with the United States. Australia used to produce mostly grass-fed beef. Today about half of the beef shipped from Australia is grain-fed beef. Seng said that's helping Australia mitigate their latest drought in putting cattle in feedlots. That's also pinning U.S. beef in direct competition of Australian beef.


The U.S. continues to battle back from losing global market share from having its first Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) case in 2003. When the U.S. was out of those markets, Seng said our competition, like Australia, started to provide a product that the U.S. had once provided. That makes it all the more difficult to get back into these markets.


The U.S. beef industry also continues to watch the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. Seng said TPP is critical to the beef industry in exporting to these Asian-Pacific countries. Once TPP is ratified, he said the duty or tax on U.S. beef would drop from 38.5 percent to 27.5 percent.


I featured Seng on this morning's Beef Buzz. Click or tap here to listen to today's Beef Buzz.

U.S. Sorghum and Peanut Harvest Almost Done, Cotton Harvest Remains Behind Schedule

 

The nation's sorghum and peanut harvest has nearly wrapped up. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Monday reported the nation's sorghum harvest was 94 percent complete. Peanuts were 96 percent harvested. Both were in line with the five year average. Nationally, cotton harvest was 70 percent complete. That's 12 points behind the average.


The nation's wheat crop condition improved slightly this week. USDA reported 53 percent of the crop was in good to excellent condition, 37 percent fair and ten percent in poor to very poor condition. The crop gained one point in the good category. A year ago this week, 58 percent of the crop was in good to excellent condition.


Click here for the full National Crop Progress report.


Click here for the full Oklahoma report.


Click here for the full Texas report.


Click here for the full Kansas report.

OSU's Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel Finds Beef Market in Transition

 

Mondays, Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry. This analysis is a part of the weekly series known as the "Cow Calf Corner" published electronically by Dr. Peel and Dr. Glenn Selk. In this week's analysis- Dr. Peel focuses on the prospects of U.S. beef production for the coming year.

 

 

"Total 2015 beef production in the U.S. is expected to decrease about 2.5 percent year over year from 2014 and would be the lowest annual beef production in the U.S since 1993. However, herd expansion, which began in 2014, is continuing in 2015 and means that beef production will begin increasing, perhaps three to four percent year over year, in 2016. The slight increase in the 2014 calf crop has been mostly offset by increased heifer retention and fewer Mexican and Canadian feeder cattle imports in 2015. The July 1 estimate of feeder supplies was up 1.8 percent year over year. Good forage conditions may be keeping some feeder cattle on pastures longer this year. Feeder supplies are growing, but rather slowly at the current time.


"In any event, the supply of cattle in feedlots has not yet begun to increase. October feedlot placements reported in the latest Cattle on Feed report were down 3.7 percent from one year ago. This is the fourth consecutive month of year over year decreases in feedlot placements and, in fact, monthly placements have been below year earlier levels in 11 of the past 13 months. In the past six months, total feedlot placements are 452 thousand head less than the same period in 2014. While feedlot placements are expected to begin increasing in the coming months, it is clear that feedlot numbers will remain tight through the first half of 2016."

Click here to read more about backlog of heavy cattle and why Peel is optimistic about fed cattle markets in early 2016

U.S. Grain Prices Buried Under Large Supplies, Market Outlook from CHS Hedging

 

One market analyst isn't afraid to provide honest insight into marketing this year's wheat, corn, soybean and sorghum crops. CHS Hedging Market Analyst Richard Plackemeier said he won't tell farmers what they want to hear, because "hope" is not a good marketing strategy. While farmers hope that commodity prices will trend higher, Plackemeier isn't so optimistic.


"Producers are kind of holding the bag right now," Plackemeier said. "I don't really sense that we're going to have a lot of great opportunities. We're going to probably be very range bound in our prices here for wheat and other commodities also, at least through the end of the year and probably going into next spring."


The outlook for wheat prices is grim. There's plenty of wheat worldwide and demand is being met through cheaper sources than the U.S. The stronger U.S. dollar has limited U.S. wheat exports and that doesn't paint a very bright picture for farmers that haven't sold their 2015 wheat crop. Plackemeier said export demand for U.S. wheat is at its lowest level of the past ten to 15 years. In looking at the next six to 12 months, he doesn't anticipate strong gains in the nation's wheat exports. Plackemeier hopes that farmers sold at least part of their crop at harvest or at least earlier this year, so the current prices would be the lowest that a farmer would receive. With the nation's wheat crop off to a decent start there aren't any production concerns. With large grain stock supplies and a lot of competition, he said the U.S. may have to sell at lower prices to move inventory.

 

 

Our Leslie Smith interviewed Plackemeier at the recent National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention in Kansas City. 

USDA Announces $350 Million to Protect and Restore Grasslands, Wetlands, and Working Lands

 

U.S. Agricultural Secretary Tom Vilsack Thursday announced the availability of $350 million to help landowners protect and restore key farmlands, grasslands and wetlands across the nation. The funding is provided through the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP), created by the 2014 Farm Bill to protect critical water resources and wildlife habitat, and encourage private owners to maintain land for farming and ranching. Through the voluntary sale of an easement, landowners limit future development to protect these key resources.


"The benefits of restoring, enhancing and protecting these working agricultural lands and critical wetlands cannot be overstated," Vilsack said. "USDA is committed to preserving working agricultural lands to help protect the long-term viability of farming across the country as well as to restoring and protecting vital sensitive wetlands that provide important wildlife habitat and improve water quality."


ACEP's agricultural land easements not only protect the long-term viability of the nation's food supply by preventing conversion of productive working lands to non-agricultural uses, they also support environmental quality, wildlife habitat, historic preservation and protection of open spaces. Native American Tribes, state and local governments and non-governmental organizations that have farmland or grassland protection programs are eligible to partner with NRCS to purchase conservation easements.  Click here to  learn more about ACEP and other technical and financial assistance available through NRCS conservation programs.

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OSU's Food & Agricultural Products Center Offers Food Safety Tips for Your Thanksgiving Menu

 

Can you believe it???? Thanksgiving day is just two days away, and many of you will be preparing holiday meals for your families and friends. But don't let food poisoning be on the menu this year.


"Every year in the United States, approximately 48 million people get sick because of some form of foodborne illnesses," said Ravi Jadeja, food safety specialist for Oklahoma State University's Robert M. Kerr Food & Agricultural Products Center. "Of those, 128,000 are hospitalized or need medical attention and, unfortunately, 3,000 people die every year."


FAPC offers the following tips to keep your family safe this festive season.


Food handling

*Buy only government-inspected meat and poultry products, and check the "sell by" date on all food purchases. Never buy products if the expiration dated has passed.

*Wash your hands thoroughly before and after preparing any food product.

*Use two cutting boards: one for preparing raw meat, poultry and fish, and the other for cutting cooked food or preparing salads.


To read more about food preparation, stuffing the turkey, cooking the turkey, storing and eating leftovers, click here.

Exclusive Analysis- Oklahoma Pasture Conditions The Best They Have Been Entering Winter Since 2010 

 

As we approach the end of November- we are coming to the end of the weekly Crop- Weather reports that are issued by NASS- a part of the USDA.  The midwest is always focused on corn and soybean plantings, conditions and harvest numbers- here in the southern plains- we watch winter wheat and cotton and grain sorghum a great deal as well.

However- we can really see the impact of drought on the beef cattle business here in Oklahoma if you look at the pasture and range conditions- and consider the year to year changes.  The pasture conditions really model the forced liquidation that Mother Nature dictated earlier this decade when drought pushed hundreds of thousands of Mama Cows off the ranches in Oklahoma and neighboring states.

As we enter the winter season here in 2015- our pasture-range conditions are in the best condition they have been in since at least 2010, with 43% rated good to excellent and only 17% in poor to very poor condition.

That's a slight improvement compared to last November- and 2015 is much better than the ratings of 2013, 2012, 2011 and even 2010. 

Here's the Good-Excellent combined number for the last weekly report of each of the last six years when it comes to pasture-range conditions in Oklahoma:

2015- 43%
2014- 39%
2013- 20%
2012- 3%
2011- 2%
2010- 27%

The poor to very poor ratings soared to eighty to eighty one percent in 2011 and 2012.

These ratings help explain both the liquidation as well as the rebuilding in 2014 and 2015 of the Oklahoma Beef Cow herd.

With weather forecasters predicting a wetter than normal winter- permanent pastures have the potential to come through the winter and be in their best shape in many years next March-April.

  

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