The cattle market has been mostly on a downward trend in 2015. That's been the case for cow-calf producers, the stocker sector and the feedlot end of the business. Kansas State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Glynn Tonsor said it's a very perilous time for cattle feeders. Based on his latest projections of feedlot cattle returns, operators have suffered large losses this year and that gushing of red ink will continue into 2016.


"It's very bearish," Tonsor said. "The closeouts that are projected from October through July, they are all negative and particularly negative for the next six months. When we look October through December, they all are $460 to almost $500 losses being projected and the core reason for that is we have over a $40 gap between the projected fed cattle price and the break-even fed cattle prices needed."


Unless feeders protected themselves from a decline in fed cattle prices at the time of placement, Tonsor said they will experience substantial losses on their fourth quarter close outs.


Feeders are experiencing massive, historic losses and negative margins. That downward trend will continue into 2016. Red ink will follow those negative margins, but Tonsor said we're going to start to see losses diminish somewhat next spring.  Click or tap here to listen to Tonsor's outlook for 2016.

After the second wettest November Oklahoma has ever recorded, it should come as no surprise that the Drought Monitor released on Thursday morning shows not only no drought- but also no abnormally dry ratings anywhere in the state of Oklahoma. The map above shows a totally "white" Oklahoma after just a small amount of yellow shading was left one week ago.


It's a remarkable difference compared to either the start of the calendar year or exactly one year ago- as readings from those weeks showed three fourths of the state in Drought or Abnormally Dry conditions. In face, last December, sixty two percent of the state was in at least moderate drought.


Statewide, November was the second wettest on record- and combined with May being the wettest May ever recorded in the state- 2015 is almost certainly going to have the most annual precipitation of any year for Oklahoma. According to Gary McManus, State Climatologist, "The official numbers released yesterday by NCEI indicate that November finished as the second wettest on record for Oklahoma (dating back to 1895) with a statewide average of 5.91 inches, just on the heels of November 2004's 5.97 inches. That brought the January-November statewide average to an official total of 48 inches on the dot, 13.56 inches above normal.


"Not only is that the wettest January-November on record, the 48 inches tops 1957's January-December record annual total of 47.88 inches, with 3 weeks to spare!"


McManus has lots more damp details- click here for his latest Mesonet Ticker.

The board of directors of the American Soybean Association (ASA) approved a comprehensive strategic plan that will strengthen the organization's efforts on policy and trade. The plan, approved by the ASA board at its annual winter meetings in St. Louis this week, will guide the association's activity to the year 2021.


"We are a proud organization with a long history of driving profitability for our farmer members, and this plan will help ensure that we progress in that role over the next five years," said ASA President Wade Cowan, a farmer from Brownfield, Texas. "In 2020, ASA will celebrate 100 years of championing the issues of soybean farmers, and there is no better way to honor that legacy than by making the strategic changes necessary to ensure our organization is strong and agile for years to come."


The strategic plan will make the following changes with the end goal of focusing the ASA mission more centrally on policy and trade benefiting soybean farmers.  Click or tap here to read more about ASA's strategic plan.

The latest global grain stocks report offered "no news". That's according to Oklahoma State University Grain Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson. On this weekend's edition of SUNUP, he provides analysis of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report that was released on Wednesday. He called the report a "non-event" as the U.S. Department of Agriculture made no changes on U.S. wheat and soybeans. There was only minor changes for corn and grain sorghum. He said this WASDE report should have zero impact on commodity prices.


With this report out of the way, Anderson said there isn't much happening between now and the start of the New Year for the commodities market. After January first, he said there will be a rash of selling with the start of a new tax year. This leads to commodity prices trading in a narrow range, but there could be some price volatility.


Traders continue to look for global news on wheat production. Ukraine planted fewer acres and there are some potential production problems with winter kill. Anderson said if Ukraine losses 20 percent of their wheat crop, that's about 200 million bushels. That accounts for .7 percent of the global wheat production. There is also concern over the lack of snow cover to protect the Russian wheat crop from freezing temperatures. He said that's an indication that the market is really looking for something to talk about, but there's not much news out there.


Argentina is looking at eliminating their export taxes next year. The new President of Argentina was inaugurated and he pledged to eliminate export taxes for wheat, corn and soybeans. Anderson said that accounts for 23 percent on wheat, 25 percent on corn and 35 percent on soybeans. He said we will just have to wait and see what happens in Argentina because down the road that could have an impact on U.S. commodity prices.

Click here to listen to the interview with Anderson and find the SUNUP show lineup.   

Day two of the 2015 Tulsa Farm Show gets underway at 9:00 AM this morning- and ten FFA teams from across the state will be at the River Spirit Expo Square for the Livestock Handling Skills Contest- showing how they can work together efficiently in processing a couple of calves in a timed event.  

The teams qualified by having the high scores in a test earlier this year during the Big Three Judging Event at Oklahoma State University back in July.  

The teams are competing for Scholarships and other prizes.

We will continue to be around today at the Tulsa Farm Show- and hope you will stop in and say hello.  At the RON booth- we are taking entries for a giveaway that will feature a couple of gift cards to Outback Steakhouse- our way of sharing the beef this holiday season!

Remember- the Tulsa Farm Show continues on Saturday as well- hours tomorrow will be 9:00 AM til 4:00 PM.

Click here for more details of all  to see and do at this year's Tulsa Farm Show.