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The US Department of Agriculture, as expected, is predicting a much larger winter wheat crop than that produced in the midst of drought conditions a year ago. According to the USDA, "Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.69 billion bushels, up 13 percent from 2011.
"Hard Red Winter, at 1.03 billion bushels, is up 32 percent from 2011. Soft Red Winter, at 428 million bushels, is down 6 percent from last year. White Winter is down 9 percent from last year and now totals 233 million bushels. Of this total, 14.1 million bushels are Hard White and 219 million bushels are Soft White."

If wheat prices should sell off hard in the next few days because of weakness in corn or harvest pressure, that sell off will not stick- at least that's the opinion of OSU Grain Marketing Economist Dr. Kim Anderson. Anderson says that while the US will have a larger winter wheat crop than in 2011, the global outlook for wheat is not as good, as several other major wheat producers may well end up producing a substantially smaller crop in the months ahead. You can hear more from Dr. Anderson by clicking here.  He will also have more on this week's SUNUP program and you will find a preview here.

Meanwhile, Tom Leffler with Leffler Commodities says the corn numbers within the supply demand numbers released by the Economic Research Service of the USDA for the World Ag Outlook Board have caught his eye.

USDA reports "U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 416.3 million tons, up 16 percent from 2011/12 with higher area and production for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. Corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 14.8 billion bushels, up 2.4 billion from 2011/12. The 2012/13 corn yield is projected at a record 166.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels above the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the rapid pace of planting and emergence. Despite the lowest expected carryin in 16 years, corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 15.7 billion bushels, up 2.2 billion from 2011/12."

Leffler adds that the Supply Demand report is very friendly to soybeans.  Leffler goes into greater detail which you can hear by clicking here. 

You can also find the full World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report by clicking here.

Analysts See 'Perfect Storm' on the Horizon for American Corn and Soybean Producers in USDA Crop Reports 

The USDA released its first estimate of the 2012/2013 corn crop size and it is a big one. This estimate projects record US corn production of 14.79 billion bushels - up 1.7 billion bushels from the previous record of 13.09 billion bushels in 2009.  USDA is also projecting corn for ethanol use to be 5 billion bushels for the marketing year running from September 1, 2012 to August 31, 2013.

A bumper crop of soybeans is also expected, with the USDA projecting a domestic harvest of 3.205 billion bushels, an increase of 149 million bushels from 2011. That boost, however, is not projected to keep up with strong demand from exports, which are expected to increase by 190 million bushels and the crush use of soybeans, which will increase by 10 million bushels. This scenario will mean U.S. soybean supplies will fall to a mere 16 days of inventory, according to American Farm Bureau Federation analysts.

Geoff Cooper, vice president of research and analysis for the Renewable Fuels Association says if the corn harvest comes in as predicted it will: be a record, beating the 2009 crop by 11% and be 65% bigger than the crop 10 years ago. You can read more of Geoff's assessment by clicking here.

Economist Todd Davis with the American Farm Bureau Federation is predicting a "perfect storm" for American producers on the world soybean markets with ending stocks the tightest they have been since the 2007-2008 marketing year. Todd Davis's analysis also includes the interplay between corn and soybeans and can be found by clicking here. 

Masters of Beef Advocacy Program Holds Great Promise for Users of Social Media

The Beef Checkoff Masters of Beef Advocacy program has gotten a big boost with its inclusion at the Oklahoma FFA State Convention and in FFA chapters across the state.   Daren Williams, dean of the program, says employing the educational program at this level is showing great results.

He recently spoke with us about the program's growth and success. As has been seen in the controversy surrounding Lean Finely Textured Beef, social media is where the public relations battle is increasingly being fought.

"You have a battle, but also an opportunity," he says. "This is our opportunity to take our story directly to the consumer. It's a very, very powerful tool to be able to start your own blog which is essentially like your own newspaper or web page. Now, it takes a lot of work, it takes some savvy as to how to really get beyond preaching to the choir and get our message out to consumers but we've got some MBA graduates who are doing a wonderful job at it and really are connecting with consumers."

You can hear the latest Beef Buzz with Daren Williams as well as find a link to Part I of our interview by clicking here.

Wheat and Canola Harvest Rolls Nicely for a Couple of Days- but Likely Halted Today into the Weekend With Arriving Rains

Harvest was gathering speed on Thursday- but the rains predicted have materialized and will likely shut down harvest until the end of the weekend at the earliest across the southwestern counties that border the Red River and Texas. A large area of southwest Oklahoma has wheat ready or very close to being ready for harvest- and it's not even mid May as of yet.

Our own Jim Apel caught up with a couple of grain elevator operators on Thursday afternoon- at Cassidy Grain in Frederick and at Gavilon in Altus.  Both reported pretty good traffic the last couple of days- although Chase Cassidy said around Frederick, the wheat was just barely ripe enough to harvest.  He reported really good yields- nothing less than 39 bushels per acre were the reports he was getting from his farmers- and test weights 60 pounds and above as well.  

The report from Gavilon was good movement- over a hundred trucks on Thursday had unloaded- but yields were not as strong south and west of Altus- based on feedback from their customers.  

We also picked up a little bit on canola harvest- Josh Bushong with OSU extension told us that southwest yields on canola that has been combined has been mostly in the mid 20 bushel range, with some reports as high as the upper 30s. 

Click here for more details from both the wheat and canola harvest front- as of early this morning.  

We also were able to snap some photos down around Apache on Thursday- saw some wheat that still had a tinge of green you could see across the field- and then a lot of fields that looked dead ripe.  We also saw a lot of wheat that has been lodged because of winds. Click here for a fresh new Flickr set of photos that we took yesterday in and around Apache- some nice looking wheat virtually ready to harvest.  

Subcommittee Hearing Learns Access to Credit Critical for Farmers

Congressman Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE), Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee's Subcommittee on Department Operations, Oversight, and Credit held a public hearing to learn more about how credit programs are working for farmers and how they should continue in the 2012 Farm Bill.

Two of the witnesses, a beginning farmer from Nebraska and an urban farmer from Ohio, explained how important it is for agricultural producers to have access to credit to both start and support their operations because of the risks inherently involved with farming. While other witnesses representing the Farm Credit System and commercial lenders described the important role they play for economic growth in rural communities.
 

"Today we heard that ensuring a stable food supply is directly connected to farmers and ranchers having access to steady sources of credit. It is especially important for our nation's beginning farmers and ranchers, who are just starting their operations. As we prepare to write the next Farm Bill, it is critical that we continue to provide a credit system that meets the needs of our agricultural producers and rural communities," said Chairman Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE).

You can read more about the hearings as well as find links to the witnesses' testimony by clicking here.

I Lost a Friend on Thursday

I was on the road in southwestern Oklahoma yesterday afternoon when I got a phone call that changed my day in a very sad way.  Sara Wyant of Agri-Pulse was on my cell phone- and said she had some tough news to share- colleague and dear friend Stewart Doan had passed away just a few minutes earlier.  

Some of you know Stewart- many of you do not.  But, you know of his work- as we shared stories in the area of farm policy and the controversy of the Beef Checkoff of 2010 and 2011.  But Stewart was more than a colleague- he was my friend.  

We are both from Kentucky.  He's a few years my junior, but our passions were very similar.  We both grew up listening to and idolizing a farm broadcaster legend who was originally from Oklahoma- Barney Arnold.  Stewart, after graduating from the University of Kentucky, ended up in Little Rock at the Arkansas Radio Network.  I later hired him during my Clear Channel days as the Farm Director of the Yancey Network which was broadcast service to farmers up and down the Mississippi.   

Since those days- I left Clear Channel to work for RON and Griffin and he left and went to work for primarily Agri-Pulse, doing the part of the job he loved the best- covering farm policy.  He was really, really good at it.  

We talked at least a couple of times a week- and I am grateful for a recent road trip where he came over from Little Rock and road up to the House Ag Committee Field Hearing in Dodge City last month.  We two days of great conversation and fellowship which I will treasure.   

We also had a common bond with the University of Kentucky Wildcats- football and basketball- we spent a lot of hours dissecting the good and bad of UK sports.  

As I mentioned- it's a personal loss- but also a professional one- Stewart was invaluable to me as we worked together so many issues and stories.  Reporting farm news won't be the same- but I will carry the memories and lessons learned from this special man.