Today and tomorrow could be nasty fire danger days across parts of Oklahoma- especially in the northwestern half of the state- but then as we get to the latter part of the week- the north winds will blow all the way from the arctic and heavy precipitation may arrive in the state and could help short circuit for at least a little while the drought conditions that cover 80% of Oklahoma.

Here's the blow by blow forecast for central and western Oklahoma- courtesy of Jed Castles of News9 in Oklahoma City:

 

Significant rainfall amounts may be rolling thru in that Friday through Sunday morning time frame- but as you can see- Jed worries about ice- and here is the graphic that shows where the most worry is:



Break(or at least dent) the Drought- Good

Bust my Bottom on ICE- NOT Good.

More guidance coming in the next couple of days as to potential for where ice may be, how much rain may be and the timing of it all.

Stay tuned.

Over the last few days, we have been at the American Farm Bureau Federation Convention in Phoenix, Arizona. While I was there, I had the chance to catch up with a member of Farm Bureau's DC staff, Mary Kay Thatcher. Mary Kay, brought us up to speed on what policy issues Congress is expected to most likely begin concentrating on over the next several months as the federal government transitions between administrations.

"I think the first thing they're going to do, is work on the Affordable Care Act and at least trying to roll back part of that," Thatcher suggested, pointing out a vote scheduled to happen later this month. "I wouldn't anticipate it would be much longer than that, they'll set up some kind of a reconciliation vote on taxes, so we can work on tax reform - But certainly the Senate will be busy doing confirmation hearings on all the various individuals."

There will be two of these hearings that will be closely watched by Farm Bureau. One will be President-elect Donald Trump's pick for EPA administrator, Oklahoma's own Scott Pruitt.

"We're very excited," Thatcher exclaimed. "We want to make sure that we can get him confirmed, so we're spending a lot of time and lot of effort on working with Scott Pruitt."

The other hearing that has the agricultural community on the edge of its seat is, Trump's nominee for Agriculture secretary, a decision yet to be made, and keeping the ag community on the edge of its seat.

"I think there's a lot of interest in what's happening," Thatcher said. "But, obviously, what's more important than when, is that we get a quality candidate. If that's what they're looking for, getting just the right person, I applaud them for it, but I would hope it happens soon. We'd like to get that confirmation hearing going as well as the other ones."

To read more about what policy issues Congress will be focusing on and for a chance to listen to my entire conversation with Thatcher, click here.

In a recent conversation with Jim Robb of the Livestock Marketing Information Center, he told me that 2016 was year of some growth in the US cow herd. He says we can expect to confirm this with the US Department of Agriculture's upcoming cattle inventory report.

"The mechanisms were already set in motion," Robb said. "The heifer hold-back is really what we're building on now."

Although, he does say that during the second half of 2016, we did begin seeing some increase in heifer and cow slaughter. However, it was not enough to actually stabilize the industry. He suggests that as of the start of this year, we will have 2.5 to 3 percent more cattle that we did a year ago. Last year, it was up as high as 3.5 percent but he says as we venture further into 2017, transitions will already be in place.

"Cow slaughter is up, heifer slaughter is starting to increase rather dramatically - so we just have to work through that process in 2017," Robb said. "So, come January 1, 2018, we ought to see some real rather stable beef cow herd numbers starting to emerge."

Click here to continue reading or to listen to our full conversation on yesterday's Beef Buzz.

U.S. red meat exports continued to build momentum in November, highlighted by a new monthly volume record for pork exports. Both pork and beef exports exceeded year-ago levels by more than 20 percent in both volume and value, according to statistics released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

November pork exports totaled 225,757 metric tons (mt), up 24 percent year-over-year and breaking the previous record (218,132 mt) set in October 2012. Export value was $586.8 million, up 30 percent from a year ago and the highest since May 2014. For January through November, pork export volume was up 7 percent from a year ago to 2.09 million mt, while export value increased 5 percent to $5.38 billion.

Even with U.S. pork production reaching record levels, exports are accounting for a larger share. November export volume equated to 28 percent of total production and 23 percent for muscle cuts only - substantial increases over the November 2015 ratios of 24 percent and 21 percent. For January through November, exports accounted for 25.5 percent of total production and 21.4 percent for muscle cuts - up from 24.2 percent and 20.9 percent, respectively, in 2015. November export value averaged $55.09 per head slaughtered, up 19 percent year-over-year. The January-November average was $49.63 per head, up 2 percent.

November was also a very strong month for beef exports, which totaled 155,335 mt - up 20 percent year-over-year and the largest since July 2013. Export value increased 21 percent to $619.1 million, the highest since December 2014. This pushed January-November export volume to 1.07 million mt (up 10 percent year-over-year) valued at $5.72 billion (down 1 percent).

November exports accounted for nearly 15 percent of total beef production and 11.7 percent for muscle cuts only - the highest levels since 2014. January-November exports accounted for 13.5 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively - up from 13 percent and 10 percent during the same period in 2015. Beef export value per head of fed slaughter reached a 2016 high of $294.39 in November, up 5 percent from a year ago. For January through November, per-head export value averaged $258.48, down 7 percent.

"With recent increases in both pork and beef production, the U.S. industry faces a significant challenge in terms of moving these larger supplies," says Phil Seng, USMEF president and CEO. "But with aggressive and well-targeted international marketing efforts, this also presents an outstanding opportunity to grow our market share in established export destinations and cultivate new opportunities in emerging markets. U.S. exports are achieving success on both fronts, and USMEF is committed to keeping this strong momentum going in the New Year."

Read more about the record levels of US meat exported this past November and view the detailed reports, by clicking here.

"Retail beef prices will continue adjusting down in 2017 due to retail market dynamics and continued growth in domestic beef consumption this year," wrote OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel in this week's Cow/Calf Corner newsletter. "The most recent All Fresh retail beef prices in November were $554.20/cwt., down 7.5 percent from one year earlier. All Fresh retail beef prices peaked in July, 2015 and have decreased 9.8 percent from the peak through November, 2016.

"The average monthly price decrease since the peak has been 0.6 percent per month but the rate of decrease accelerated in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2016. November All Fresh beef prices were down 1.7 percent from October following a 1.9 percent monthly decrease in October from September. A faster decrease is not surprising given the jump in beef consumption in Q4 of 2016. Fourth quarter beef production was up a projected 8.3 percent year over year and, when adjusted for fewer beef imports and increased beef exports, resulted in a projected 6.5 percent increase in per capita retail beef consumption compared to Q4 of the previous year. Sharply higher Q4 beef production in 2016 contributed to a projected annual increase in per capita beef consumption of 3.1 percent for the year."

Peel writes on that beef production in 2017 will increase up to four percent, which will in turn lead to increased year-over-year consumption by a little over one percent. He states that on a quarterly basis, the consumption increase will be relatively modest. Accounting for supply and demand, in addition to competition from pork and chicken products - beef demand relative to the projected lower prices should be considered only a moderate change to the current situation.

"The fact that retail beef prices will be lower in 2017 does not inevitably imply additional pressure on cattle prices.   The dynamics of retail price adjustments are slower than for cattle and wholesale beef markets. This is true for both price increases as well as decreases," he wrote. "Of course, total beef supplies are expected to increase in 2017 and overall market price pressure will depend critically on both domestic and international demand for U.S. beef in 2017."

Click here for Dr. Peel's complete analysis of the dynamics coming into play for the beef markets in 2017.

Also during Farm Bureau's convention in Phoenix, Dr. Pat Westhoff, director the of food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri, spoke on the U.S. grain price outlook and crop demand for 2017-2018, which according to him, will likely show no major changes from the 2016-2017 marketing year.

Trends for 2017 look to stay similar to that of 2016, unless a major disruption in outside factors occurs, such as weather or foreign market changes, according to Westhoff. Prices will continue to be below average, and lower than 2016, based on trends, he said.

"Lots of pressure will be placed on labor markets where there hasn't been in the last several years," Westhoff said. This a result of poor labor markets and a slowing rate of population growth.

"Most of the immediate population growth will occur in the age range of people who are not of working age in the U.S., adding to the stress on the labor market," Westhoff said.

Westhoff addressed the outlooks on global and U.S. markets for each of the major crop markets separately - corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and rice - predicting not much change will occur in any of the respective crop markets.

Click here to read more about Dr. Westhoff's grain price predictions for 2017.

As many of you know, Radio Oklahoma Network is a service of our parent company, Griffin Communications. It has come to my attention that the distributor DISH Network, has dropped Griffin's television channels in Oklahoma including stations that carry programming such as News9, News on 6 and CBS affiliated sitcoms and dramas. This is a tactic by DISH to apply pressure in some ongoing negotiations with Griffin.

"As an Oklahoma-based, family-owned company, we simply want to be fairly compensated for the product we provide DISH customers," said David Griffin, president of Griffin Communications. "The amount we are asking is similar to what other cable and satellite systems are currently paying Griffin Communications. We are so sorry that our viewers are caught in the middle and we appreciate their support. We want nothing more than to continue to provide quality, local and CBS programming for viewers."

I'm sure most if not all of you, enjoy the content Griffin offers as Oklahoma's leader in local news and as the state's CBS affiliate. If you are a subscriber to DISH Network, this means you will no longer be able to view programming from our sister stations on TV. As I'm sure none of you wish to have your viewing options unfairly limited, I would ask that you voice your support for a local, family-owned business that employs not only myself, but hundreds of fellow colleagues, by either calling 1-855-318-0572 or e-mail DISH at feedback@customermail.dishnetwork.com and tell them to restore News 9, News On 6, KSBI, Tulsa CW and MyNetworkTV programming.