One of the hallmarks of agricultural commodity markets is their tendency to have reliable seasonal price patterns each year. According to Jim Sullivan, Director of Commodity Research and Product Development, CME Group, these patterns are important as they help to inform the decisions regarding the timing of both production and sales. However, when an event such as the COVID-19 pandemic hits, the resulting disruptions ripple throughout the supply chain and can disrupt seasonal patterns.

While there are eight different quality grades applied to beef, Choice is the most common quality grade as over 70 percent of all beef carcasses are graded with this designation. In a normal year, the market for U.S. Choice quality beef will see a seasonal run-up from the early spring through the beginning of summer. This period is often referred to as the “grilling” season. As the weather warms up and people utilize their barbecue grills, retailers market to strong seasonal demand for steaks and burgers. This contributes to prices rising from the typical lows in February to the highs in May. From May onward, beef prices tend to decline before seeing one last bounce in November heading into the holiday season.

Beef Pricing  

The United States Department of Agriculture, or USDA, publishes its “National Daily Boxed Beef Cutout and Boxed Beef Cuts” report each afternoon. The report, also known as the XB403, is a comprehensive look at all beef transactions from meat packing firms regulated by the Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act.