Howdy Neighbors!

Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. We are pleased to have American Farmers & Ranchers Mutual Insurance Company as a regular sponsor of our daily update- click here to go to their AFR web site to learn more about their efforts to serve rural America!

It is also great to have as an annual sponsor on our daily email Johnston Enterprises- proud to be serving agriculture across Oklahoma and around the world since 1893. Johnston is proud to be an outlet for Trimble GPS Guidance and Precision Agriculture Solutions- Call Derrick Bentz at 580-732-8080 for details. For more on Johnston Enterprises- click here for their website!

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The soybean crop was forecast for 3.085 billion bushels, up 1 percent due to higher yields although USDA ratings of the crop condition declined during August. Traders expected USDA to cut the crop by 1 percent. The soybean stockpile would shrink to 165 million bushels by next fall, slightly larger than traders expect but a two-and-a-half week supply. Corn supplies were forecast for 672 million bushels next Sept 1, compared to trade expectations of 636 million bushels. It would be a lean stocks to use ratio of 5.3 percent.

With a slightly larger domestic cotton crop, China will import 14.5 million bales of cotton during 2011/12, down 500,000 bales from last month's estimate, said USDA. It cut its forecast of U.S. cotton exports by 300,000 bales, to 12 million bales for this marketing year. The US Cotton crop forecast was left virutally unchanged at 15.819 million bales of upland cotton, which is just over ten percent smaller than the 2010 crop.

The Oklahoma spring planted crop numbers showed little change from the August estimates, with only peanuts set to produce a similar sized crop to 2010. The Oklahoma peanut harvest is predicted to bring in 69 million pounds, 2.6% more than the 2010 crop. In contrast, the Oklahoma cotton crop, which had been trending upward over the last few years, is called to be 79% smaller than in 2010. The 90,000 bales is up 5,000 bales from the August forecast- but just a fraction of the 422,000 bales grown in 2010.

Click here for more on both USDA reports- links to the full reports and reaction to them by Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities

For our spring-planted crops, according to the USDA- "Seedbed preparations increased slightly but small grain planting was limited as little precipitation was received across the state. Seedbed preparation for wheat ground was 55 percent complete by week's end, just 13 points behind normal. Rye ground plowed was 90 percent complete and 45 percent of seedbeds were prepared by Sunday, 26 points behind the five-year average. Plowing of oat ground was 93 percent complete with 42 percent of seedbeds prepared. Canola seedbed preparation reached 67 percent complete by the end of the week, up 17 points from the previous week."

"Crop condition ratings remained mostly very poor for most crops. Any remaining crops were struggling or salvaged for hay or silage. Peanuts were rated mostly fair. Of the corn still in the fields, 83 percent was mature and 56 percent had been harvested by week's end. Sorghum heading reached 89 percent complete, coloring was 50 percent complete, 23 percent was mature, and seven percent was harvested by Sunday. Soybean blooming was 91 percent complete, 70 percent were setting pods, and six percent was harvested by week's end. Peanuts setting pods reached 89 percent, and 10 percent were mature by Sunday, 23 points behind normal. Cotton reached 87 percent setting bolls, 13 points behind normal. Boll opening reached 20 percent complete by week's end, 15 points behind the five-year average."

Hay production continued to fall behind normal with conditions rated mostly very poor for all hay. Second cuttings of alfalfa were 95 percent complete and third cuttings were 44 percent complete by the end of the week, 56 points behind normal. Second cutting of other hay reached 40 percent complete by Sunday, 24 points behind the five-year average.

Click here for the complete Crop Weather Update for Monday, September 12, 2011

There's a chance that many of these communities could add one more century mark reading to its meteorological achievements today- before a big change in the weather patterns arrive. From the weather discussion coming from the boys in Norman this morning- "A much stronger front will arrive Wednesday into Wednesday evening as a shortwave/upper low moves across the Great Lakes region. As an upper low/trough over the southwestern states moves East- precipitation will become likely across a large part of the southern plains Wednesday night into Thursday. Clouds and relatively cool air behind the front will result in very cool high temperatures for mid September. Clouds and precipitation on Thursday will likely keep most areas in the 60s with some 70s possible south."

Chances of precipitation jump well over 50% in a lot of the state Wednesday night into Thursday. In his email communication- Gary McManus describes the possibilities- "Speaking of rainfall, we've been promised some lovely wet, gray days during this week. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows a 5-day precipitation forecast of greater than in inch in southwestern Oklahoma. This is something concrete to hope for."

I emailed Gary about this long "Hydro" word- and he sears its a real word- what we are hoping for is real rain- real soon.

Click here for a rainfall prediction map from the mesonet folks for later this week for Oklahoma.

Winter wheat grazing normally supports a large winter stocker industry in Oklahoma. The January 1 estimate of feeder cattle outside of feedlots has averaged about 2.3 million head the last ten years. This value includes roughly a million head of stocker cattle that are brought into Oklahoma for winter grazing in addition to stocker cattle retained from Oklahoma's 1.9 million head calf crop. These in-shipments of cattle will be drastically reduced given current prospects for winter wheat pasture.

The extreme drought conditions has resulted in severely reduced hay and pasture production and now seems likely to limit winter wheat forage to a small fraction of normal production. Many calves in Oklahoma have already been marketed as early weaned calves and have moved to feedlots or to better forage out of state. That fact, combined with few calves brought in as stockers may result in an Oklahoma feeder supply on January 1, 2012 that is down by one million head or more.

Click here for more from Dr. Peel and his latest cattle market analysis

Applications for permits are available for download at the ODOT website, which can be found by following the link below, in the "forms" link. They much be filled out then taken to a local ODOT division headquarters or ODOT county maintenance yard between 7:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m. Monday through Friday for approval. There is no fee to apply and insurance verification must also be provided as part of the approval process.

Additional requirements/restrictions include:

-All work has to be completed during daylight hours, Monday through Friday

-Bales cannot be left within 30 feet of the roadway

-Warning signs must be in place when working in the rights-of-way

-Grass cannot be cut shorter than 5 inches tall

Click here for more information and applications for these permits

ADAP builds on the existing structure of ACRE and is designed to address the need for simplification and elimination of overlapping coverage with individual crop insurance. Changes include the use of harvest prices and crop reporting districts to set the crop revenue guarantee and would establish a guarantee based on the five-year Olympic average of revenue.

Payments would be limited to 10 percent of the guarantee, based on planted acres and adjusted to a farm's yield. Payments would cover lost revenue between 85 to 95 percent of the guarantee. Marketing loan rates would be restored to standard levels, rather than being reduced by 30 percent in ACRE.

Click here for additional information on this proposal by the NCGA

"Agriculture is a bright spot in our economy, with exports and net farm income at record highs and total farm debt declining," said Vilsack. "This is a major achievement and a testament to our farmers and ranchers, who continue to work hard, innovate and make smart business decisions in these challenging times. As we work to create jobs and strengthen small businesses, we need a Farm Bill that maintains a strong safety net and gives America's farm and ranch families the support they need to continue to thrive and out-compete the rest of the world."

"We will likely not have as much money to write the next farm bill as we have for previous farm bills," said NFU President Roger Johnson. "Because of that, we have to focus on our top priorities, like protecting family farmers and ranchers during difficult times. Having our grassroots members meet with the policymakers face-to-face is invaluable because it gives family farmers and ranchers an opportunity to discuss the real problems they face on a daily basis. These are the people that farm programs should be designed for, and they are the reason it is so important to ensure that we maintain a strong safety net."

Click here for more on the NFU Fly-In and AFR's priorities while in Washington, D.C.

We also invite you to check out our website at the link below to check out an archive of these daily emails, audio reports and top farm news story links from around the globe.

Click here to check out WWW.OklahomaFarmReport.Com

Here are some links we will leave in place on an ongoing basis- Click on the name of the report to go to that link:
Our Daily Market Wrapup from the Radio Oklahoma Network with Ed Richards and Tom Leffler- analyzing the Futures Markets from the previous Day-
Ron on RON Markets as heard on K101 mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Previous Day's Wheat Market Recap- Two Pager From The Kansas City Board of Trade looks at all three US Wheat Futures Exchanges with extra info on Hard Red Winter Wheat and the why of that day's market.
Daily Oklahoma Cash Grain Prices- As Reported by the Oklahoma Dept. of Agriculture.
The National Daily Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary- as prepared by USDA.
The National Daily Slaughter Cattle Summary- as prepared by USDA.
Finally, Here is the Daily Volume and Price Summary from the Texas Cattle Feeders Association.