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We have literally been talking about this particular election day since 2010- when the Republicans regained a majority of the US House and took away the total control of Captial Hill that President Barack Obama had in the first two years of his Presidency.  For agricultural interests in the southern Plains- that was significant as it switched the Committee Chairmanship of the House Ag Committee from Collin Peterson of Minnesota to Oklahoma Rancher Frank Lucas of Roger Mills County in western Oklahoma.  His fingerprints are clearly reflected in the House Ag Committee's version of farm policy which acknowledges there are different needs and concerns in southern agriculture versus the midwest corn and soybean belt. 

The pundents generally agree that the US House will likely stay Republican- meaning that Mr. Lucas will stay as Chairman of the Committee for another two years.  Politico has an interesting read on the House races that will be decided in large part by tomorrow morning- click here to read their Election Day take on what the House may end up looking like in 2013.

Meanwhile, we have been told more than once by Oklahoma's Senior Republican Senator Jim Inhofe that the Senate will become a GOP majority- most of the experts now say that will not happen- but there are now enough close races in key states that you should probably take up the thought- "It Ain't Over Til It's Over." (Did Yogi Berra say that?)  Larry Sabato is one expert that thinks Inhofe's hopes will go down in flames tonight-his latest report tshows no change in the makeup as far as the numbers go- 53 to 47. That would mean Debbie Stabenow would still be Chair of the Senate Ag Committee and the one that would be across the table from Frank Lucas working out final details of the 2012-2013 Farm Bill- either in Lame Duck or in a new Congressional year. 

Who knows how the race for the White House will turn out?  I am not sure that we will know for certain when we write our Wednesday morning Email update- Obviously, the seven electoral votes from Oklahoma will be committed to Mitt Romney- after that, we will do the math in real time tonight and into Wednesday morning. It does matter who is in the White House to agriculture- a good example of that can be heard in the comments we featured in our Monday Beef Buzz with Colin Woodall of the NCBA- Click here to take a listen.

Our friend Keith Good of FarmPolicy.Com has a great compilation of dozens and dozens of links about the various races around the country- you can jump over to it by clicking here.

We will be watching with you tonight's results- and will devote most of tomorrow morning's email to a look at what is known by early Wednesday- and the ramifications for the Lame Duck dealing with the 2012 Farm Bill. We will also have coverage of several key issue votes- like Proposition 37 in California where GMO labeling is on the ballot. We plan to have updates on Twitter and our Facebook page and our website- we will write updates as needed for all of these platforms- we do hope to visit with the Chairman of the House Ag Committee sometime this evening and will have that for you as well.

FINALLY- I have already voted by Absentee ballot and would encourage you to stand in line as long as you need to- but exercise your right as an American and VOTE!!! 

Randy Blach with CattleFax Remains Convinced Herd Expansion Will Eventually Come 

One of the leading cattle market watchers in the country believes that beef herd expansion is coming, but Randy Blach with CattleFax told the recent Texas Cattle Feeders Association Convention that increase in the beef cow herd in the US may still be a year or two away.

"The herd is still getting smaller and we think it will continue to shrink a little more on in to 2014 and 2015 but I would say by January of 2015, we will see the herd stabilize and grow-assuming it rains. And obviously that is a big assumption, but we believe we are still on track to see an expansion, or we will see the continued change from La Niña back to El Niño and we should see more moisture flow as a result of that.

"Fed slaughter is down 950,000 head for the year and yet heifer slaughter is down over half of that. Normally heifer slaughter would comprise 36% to 37% of our total slaughter. That's telling you that producers in this industry are trying to hold the females together. Beef cow slaughter is down nearly 500,000 head."

Prices are going to continue to be at record highs. "I told you they'd be record high in 2012 and we probably would make and money-and that's what happened. That's going to be a tough situation over the next 12-18 months as we go through this situation of declining numbers to pick and choose from." 

Click here to read more.  

 

Canola TV-'Answer Plots' Highlight Production Practices in Upcoming Sessions

Our latest episode of CanolaTV is now available to be seen on YouTube as well as on our website- OklahomaFarmReport.Com.  Our thanks to PCOM, Producers Cooperative Oil Mill, the sponsors of this ongoing effort to get canola producers and those interested in winter canola production up to speed about this important new rotational crop for the millions of winter wheat acres in the southern Plains.

In an effort to help prospective producers get up to speed quickly with growing canola, experts at Winfield Solutions established their "Answer Plot" System. The system was started five years ago and now has two locations in Oklahoma. Justin Stejskal of Winfield spoke with me recently about the program and two upcoming educational seminars in Oklahoma.

"The Answer Plot System is a national system sponsored by Winfield. Nationally we have about 200 sites across the United States including Mexico, Canada, and a site Kenya and one in China also now. Here in Oklahoma, we have two sites.

"The Answer Plot System is based on crops grown locally in that region. So, in Oklahoma, we have two sites with winter canola and winter wheat.

He says the project's purpose is to demonstrate the latest management practices mainly for canola. He says a portion of the field is dedicated to replicated trials for yield trials, population studies, and fertility studies.   In addition, he said his company's wheat varieties are tested based on seed treatment options and the like.

Click here to watch this episode of Canola TV and to get directions to the upcoming seminars Nov. 13th & 14th.

 

November Gets Off to a Dry Start Much to the Dismay of Farmers

November has begun just like October ended-dry.  Only three Mesonet stations recorded rain last walk, all less than a quarter of an inch.  Wheat conditions in the new Oklahoma Crop Weather Report were listed mostly fair to poor. Wheat planting was 96 percent complete by the end of the week and 78 percent of the crop had emerged.   Canola conditions were rated mostly good to fair and 93 percent of the crop had emerged by week's end.  Click here for Oklahoma's Crop Weather Report.

Kansas farmers have nearly completed wheat seeding with 98 percent of the crop in the ground by Sunday.  Eighty-seven percent of the wheat had emerged by week's end, ahead of last year at 85 percent and the five-year average of 80 percent. The condition of the crop was three percent very poor, 10 percent poor, 50 percent fair, 35 percent good, and two percent excellent.  Read the full Kansas report by clicking here.

In Texas, winter wheat was off to a good start but is in need of rainfall to sustain growth. Irrigation was active in some areas while dry land acres were beginning to show signs of stress. Small grain seeding continued around the state but slowed in some areas due to dry conditions.  Eighty-seven percent of wheat acres had been planted with 69 percent emerged.  Both are slightly ahead of last year and the five year average.  You can read the Texas report by clicking here. 

Wheat Pasture Prospects Fading Fast

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, writes in the current Cow-Calf Newsletter about the latest casualties of the drought.

No significant rain has fallen in Oklahoma in over two weeks. Last week's Crop Progress showed that 25 percent of Oklahoma wheat was in good condition and 61 percent was fair with only 12 percent poor or very poor. Though the wheat crop in 2011 was planted later, the crop condition at the end of October was substantially better than this year. Moreover, wheat conditions will likely show significant deterioration very soon without rain. Since the majority of wheat has emerged and soil moisture is depleted in many areas, additional moisture is critical and must arrive very soon. In the driest areas of the north central and northwest parts of the state, wheat has either not emerged or has not been planted at this time. The short term weather forecast indicates little precipitation probability for the next 8-14 days. The El Niño that has been anticipated much of the summer and fall appears to have faded into weak or neutral conditions, providing fewer chances for winter moisture in the Southern Plains.

Stocker demand has faltered as the potential wheat pasture is far from a reality at this time. Stocker producers are in a wait-and-see mode before committing to stocker purchases. There appears to be considerable interest in wheat pasture leasing by producers as well as feedlots hoping to secure some spring feeder cattle supplies and use wheat pasture to put on cheaper weight gain before feedlot placement. However, the clock is ticking on wheat pasture prospects in Oklahoma.

This story is continued on our web page.  Click here for more.

Mites and Moths: A Fall for Keeping a Vigilant Watch on Wheat and Canola

Mike Jeffcoat, Extension Educator Ag in Jefferson County reported a wheat field that was heavily infested with winter grain mite (WGM) which is also called the blue oat mite. The levels of damage he reported seeing were surprising, but a dry fall, coupled with a cooling of temps and slow growth of wheat means the wheat is vulnerable to this pest.

This mite is small (about the 1 mm long) with a dark blue to black body and 4 pair of orange-red legs. It also has a small reddish spot on the top of its abdomen that can be seen under magnification. The eggs of WGM are kidney-shaped, and change from clear, to yellow to reddish-orange after several days. They are laid on leaf blades and stems or the roots near the crown. Besides wheat, many grasses serve as host plants, including barley, oats, ryegrass and fescue.

In all cases, adult mites are females, all of which are capable of laying eggs. The first generation will peak in December/January and the second will peak in March/April. Newly- hatched take up to 60 days to mature and can live for up to 40 days as adults. Winter grain mites oversummer as eggs. They are most active when temperatures are between 40 degrees and 70 degrees F. Freezing conditions and/or snow cover don't really affect them.

You can read more by clicking here.

 

This N That - OSU Takes American Royal, WheatWatch Future May Include Rain, and It's Ratcliff Ranch Annual Production Sale Time

Most of the wheat in our central Oklahoma WheatWatch 2013 photos has been able to emerge on minimal moisture. We have comparision shots now for two different fields- the first pics taken October 16 and the second set November 2. We will continue to take followup shots through the growing season of these fields to allow you to see their development.  You can check out the latest WheatWatch pictures by clicking here. WheatWatch 2013 is a service of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission, working hard for the Oklahoma Wheat Producer

Meanwhile- wheat and canola farmers are REALLY hoping for a drink of water for the fall planted crops.   Meteorologist Matt Mahler with News9 KWTV says in a blog post some relief from the very dry conditions may be rolling into portions of Oklahoma by Saturday night and Sunday.  He writes "A big storm system will develop in the western U.S. and arrive in Oklahoma on Saturday. The best rain chances, at this time, appear to be late Saturday into early Sunday. While a few of the storms could be strong to severe, it does appear we'll have enough moisture in place for lots of rain to fall. Where exactly it will is still in question as there's a long way to go, but when you're in a drought situation, it's never too early to look at rainfall prospects!"  

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The OSU Livestock Judging Team outperformed the competition to take the American Royal in Kansas City last weekend.  The Cowboys were the high team overall and also took home top team honors in swine, cattle and reasons.  Morgan Meisenheimer who was named the high individual overall was also the high individual in both cattle and oral reasons.  Jamie Bloomberg was the 9th high individual overall, and was also 4th in reasons, 9th in cattle and 6th in swine.  Clay Zwilling was the 10th high individual overall, 9th in sheep, and was 8th in swine.  Katie Duysen was 6th in reasons and 7th in swine.  Jake Warntjes was 9th in reasons.

Winning the American Royal is a significant achievement for OSU, and the team will travel to Louisville, Kentucky, to compete in the National Championship contest in one week at the North American International Livestock Exposition.

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Seventy Ranch-Ready Angus and SimAngus bulls will be on the block Nov. 10 at Ratcliff Ranches in Vinita during their annual Fall Production and Customer Sale.   Also up for sale will be 850 functional commercial Angus and SimAngus females.

For more information click here or call 918-244-8025.