Drought Wreaks Havoc on Oklahoma Cotton Crop for Second Year in a Row

The 2012 crop is definitely winding down. It has been another tough year in the Oklahoma cotton patch. Two years of back-to-back droughts have wreaked havoc in Oklahoma. Interesting graphics courtesy of USDA-RMA concerning crop insurance indemnities paid out by county across the US in 2011 and 2012 are available on our website by clicking here. 

Randy Boman and Shane Osborne of the OSU Southwest Oklahoma Research and Extension Center in Altus say considerable dryland acreage has once again failed. Irrigated yields are essentially a function of how much irrigation capacity was available to the crop, and application efficiency. Some high capacity center pivots and some drip irrigated fields have produced up to 3.5 bales/acre; whereas limited furrow irrigated fields have been closer to one bale/acre.

We are ending 2012 with over 90% of the state in the extreme/exceptional drought categories. Although weather prognosticators in the southern Great Plains are often wrong, they are indicating a continued run of dry conditions.

An early freeze/frost event on October 8 in western Oklahoma was a spoiler and likely terminated cotton fiber development in some later maturing fields. However, based on excellent September maturing weather, yield and quality were not devastated as would have occurred during a more normal year. 

On October 27, we had a killing freeze over much of the area. Producers were able to get winter wheat and cover crops established on the failed cotton acreage thanks to the late September rainfall (2.3 inches). 

Click here for more from Shane and Randy. 

Derrell Peel Reports Beef Cow Slaughter Continues at Liquidation Pace 

Writing in the latest Cow-Calf Newsletter, Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, examines the continued culling of the nation's cow herd.

With only a few weeks of data to finish the year, beef cow slaughter, though significantly smaller than last year, is on pace to ensure additional herd liquidation for the 2012 year. For the year to date, beef cow slaughter is down 12.6 percent from last year. Smaller year over year reductions in recent weeks have reduced the magnitude of the decrease from last year. In fact, one interpretation of smaller year over year decreases the last few weeks could be seen as an indication that liquidation is increasing with growing slaughter rates relative to a year ago.

However, by this time last year most of the drought forced liquidation was past and beef cow slaughter had dropped back to more seasonally typical levels. In other words, weekly beef cow slaughter has dropped back to single digit decreases from last year after spending much of the year with double digit decreases but it really says more about what was happening last year than this year. However, at the current pace, 2012 beef cow slaughter will be over 11 percent of the January 1 cow herd inventory. This will make the fifth consecutive year of double digit beef culling rates. 

Some cows will be liquidated through the winter for lack of water and many more will move promptly next spring if the current dry conditions persist. In the Southern Plains, if the current dry winter is followed by a dry spring, 2013 will be a repeat of the massive liquidations of 2011 except that it will happen earlier with more sales before July 4 compared to after, like 2011.

Click here for more analysis from Derrell Peel.

 

Most Spring Planted Crops in Oklahoma Face Crop Insurance Premium Increases for 2013

Federal law requires the Risk Management Agency (RMA) to set premium rates and implement rate changes in a timely manner to cover expected losses and a reasonable reserve. To ensure rates are actuarially sound, the Act also requires RMA to conduct periodic reviews of premium rates and its methodology for establishing premium rates.

Those reviews have been done for the 2013 crop growing season- and it appears three of the four crops that RMA has released data on will see crop insurance premium inceases in Oklahoma for the coming crop year. That is led by an eight percent increase in cotton crop insurance premiums, a three percent increase for corn policies and a five percent increase for grain sorghum. Soybean acres that have crop insurance written on them seem to be in line for a two percent reduction in premium rates to the Oklahoma farmer.

You can read more and look at several maps in a backgrounder that RMA has assembled about increases and decreases in Premiums for 2013 by clicking here.

 

This past week- word came from Oklahoma Farm Bureau Executive Director Monica Wilke that  Chris Kidd will assume the role of  Vice President of Organization and Membership.  In addition, we had not had the chance to report to you the election of Pottawatomie County farmer John Grundmann to represent District 8 on the Oklahoma Farm Bureau Board of Directors- that happened last month during the 71st OFB Annual Meeting. 

Kidd joined Farm Bureau in 2009 as a field representative in south central Oklahoma. He began serving as YF&R coordinator in December 2010 until becoming the director of state and national affairs in December 2011.  In his new role, Kidd will oversee membership, member benefits, commodities and the YF&R and Farm Bureau Women's Committees.  Click here for more on Chris Kidd. 

USDA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Collaborate on Improved Drought Weather Forecasting

USDA and other federal agencies continue to work to address the long term effects of last summer's historic drought.

In the wake of a series of regional drought conferences with farmers, ranchers, business owners and other stakeholders, USDA is entering into a memorandum of understanding with the Department of Commerce, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to improve sharing of data and expertise, monitoring networks, and drought forecasting efforts. The MOU is a direct outcome of the regional conferences.In recent months, USDA has partnered with local governments, colleges, state and federal partners to conduct a series of regional drought workshops. Hundreds of producers met with government officials to discuss needs, and programs available to them. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack kicked off the first meeting in Nebraska, and additional meetings were held in Colorado, Arkansas, and Ohio.

You can read more of this story on our website by clicking here.

 

2013 No-Till on the Planes Conference Looks to be a Dandy

We are Stewards of the Earth: Building Wealth by Building Soil Health is the theme of the 17th annual No-till On the Plains Winter Conference.   It will take place Tuesday-Wednesday, January 29 - 30, 2013, in the Salina, Kansas, Bicentennial Center.

The conference features NRCS Conservation Agronomist Ray Archuleta whose enthusiasm for building soil health is contagious. The depth of his knowledge of the system will inspire and equip participants with information to cope with the weather extremes of today. His dynamic keynote presentation is scheduled on Day 1.

The Day 2 keynote will be delivered by Professor David R. Montgomery, author of Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations, which makes the case that we are using up Earth's soil. Montgomery will trace the role of soil use and abuse in the history of societies and explore how soil has shaped us and we have shaped soil. Soil erosion should be seen as a threat to our planet as serious as climate change, contends Montgomery.  

We emceed portions of this event last year and had a blast.  It would be worth your time and money to attend the 2013 edition as it will offer some perspectives on how we farm that simply can not be had in many other venues.  

You'll find more information about this conference by clicking here. 

Colder Air Barrels Towards Oklahoma This Week- Maybe A  Snow Event Next Week?

First of all- most folks need rain- and a lot of it.  There is nothing in our forecast that offers much hope until at least Christmas for that- sorry. But our friends in Kansas may be looking at a pretty decent snowstorm this week while the northern tier of counties in Oklahoma may get a "dusting" late Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning- that according to News9's Gary England. Gary adds that everyone in the state will feel the colder air push in with strong northerly winds and lots of single digit wind chills.  

Alan Crone at the News on 6 in Tulsa adds that the system this week could mean a chance for some thunderstorm activity in far eastern Oklahoma or western Arkansas- "A few of these storms could be severe with wind  and hail the main threat.  The upper air profile seems to support a squall line type feature as the storms mature with time into pre-dawn Thursday.  Our chances for thunderstorm activity in Tulsa remain around 20% but locations along and east of highway 69-75 will be in the running for a 30 to 40% pop.  This window for possible storm formation will be relatively small from 6pm to midnight." (meaning Wednesday night)

Now- about next week and what may be out there weather wise. Gary England says the western half of the state could get a little moisture from the significant storm that seems to be headed our way. The eastern half of the state is where it could get really interesting- with more precipitation and perhaps even heavy snows before it's done.  

Alan Crone offers in his morning blog his thoughts on what is still a developing situation- "there is absolutely no way we can say with any confidence this morning whether or not we'll see snow with the Christmas time period system. It's simply too early in the forecast process.  The data has already changed a few times during the past 2 days regarding the time period and the position of the main features of interest.  One model brings the system into the area on Christmas Day, and the other delays the system until the day after Christmas. The computer model data will be analyzed during every run and we'll continue to watch this time period carefully and make statements when appropriate.  If one takes the latest data as absolutely true, we would have a round of rain-storms followed by cold enough air to support wintry precip including a pretty good shot of snow."  You can click here to read Alan's full blog entry from this morning which gives us a nice summary of both this week and next. 

One thing seems to be for certain- we will end 2012 in extreme to exceptional drought in most of Oklahoma. We can only pray that 2013 will treat us better- especially when it comes to rainfall.