Declining Grain Prices Could Trigger New Farm Bill Assistance, USDA Economist Projects 

Significant declines in grain prices and significant increases in federal budget outlays are ahead according to projections released Thursday by the USDA. The price drops in corn, soybeans and wheat could be enough to trigger payments under the new farm bill according to USDA Chief Economist Joe Glauber. Glauber released his findings during a presentation at the department's annual two-day Agricultural Outlook Forum. 

Glauber's projections indicate corn prices could fall to $3.90 per bushel in the coming crop year despite decreases in planted acres. Decreases in planted acres would not help wheat prices either, with Glauber projecting a price of $5.30 per bushel.

Soybeans would be hurt the least, with a projected price of $9.65 per bushel. That figure, however, represents a 24 percent decline from the current USDA estimate for the 2013-2014 farm cycle.

The prices for all three commodities fall below assumptions used by the Congressional Budget Office when it scored the 2014 farm bill. An updated CBO score next month will use the new USDA projections and is likely to show farm bill outlays will increase billions of dollars.

The new numbers reflect the dynamics of the new farm bill signed into law earlier this month by President Obama.

Previous projections had shown corn prices would drop as low as $3.65 per bushel under the old law, so the new projection of $3.90 represents a modest improvement on hopes that reduced acreage will stabilize prices. Even with the improvement, the gap between the earlier CBO estimates and Glauber's new projections looms large. If the projections are accurate, corn growers will receive substantial aid under the new Agriculture Risk Coverage program. ARC subsidies would be paid out in 2015.

Click here for more of this story and a link to the charts Glauber used during his presentation.  

Ag Census Shows Drop in Number of Oklahoma Farms but Not in Acres Being Farmed

Preliminary findings in the 2012 Census of Agriculture counted 2,109,363 farms in the United States, according to results issued today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

The number of reported U.S. farms decreased by 4 percent since the 2007 Census of Agriculture. In Oklahoma, the number of farms had a larger decline, by 7 percent, and was estimated at 80,245 farms.

"The Census of Agriculture is a complete count of the Nation's farms and ranches, and the people who operate them," said Wilbert Hundl, Jr., State Statistician for the NASS Oklahoma Field Office. "It provides the only source of uniform, comprehensive agricultural data for every county in the Nation."

"In addition to looking at all aspects of farming," said Hundl, "the Census of Agriculture provides the most comprehensive look at operator demographics - an area in which operators continue to become more diverse, both in Oklahoma and across the United States." The 2012 Census counted fewer female principal farm operators in Oklahoma compared to the 2007 Census; however, counts of American Indian, Asian and Black or African American farm operators continued to trend upward.

You'll find the rest of this story on our website by clicking here.  Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack weighed in on the preliminary numbers and you'll find his comments by clicking here.   

From the preliminary report released on Thursday- here are a few key numbers for Oklahoma:

Number of Acres Farmed 34,356,110 acres (2012 Report up 350,000 acres from 2007)

Average Farm Size in Oklahoma- 428 acres

Farms with $50,000 Gross Sales or More- 13,989- UP 13% from 2007

Average Age of Farm Operator- 58.3 years (same as national average  age)

Collin Peterson Reflects on Farm Bill Passage and Challenges Yet Ahead

It took more than four years for what is officially known as the Agriculture Act of 2014 to be written and to make it through the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives and be signed into law. Reflecting on the bill's history, Ranking Democrat Member Collin Peterson spoke recently with Mike Hergert, farm director with the Red River Radio Network in North Dakota. 

Peterson said there were a number of reasons it took the bill so long to wend its way through the process. Some of the roadblocks were structural and some of them were due to personalities, he said.

"This is the first time the Senate went first. And because they don't have the depth over in the Senate that we have in the House, they got themselves backed into some corners and it was hard to get them out.

Peterson said the process of passing a farm bill has become so arduous that there may never be another one.

Click here to read more or to listen to Collin Peterson's comments.  

Canola Producers, Researchers Getting a Handle on Pest Management, Royer Says

One issue that farmers new to canola have to master early is pest control. Dr. Tom Royer, an entomologist at Oklahoma State University, spoke about pests and effective management at the recent Canola College event in Enid. He says producers and researchers in the Southern Plains have already learned a great deal about managing the crop in the relatively short time it has been grown here.

"The first thing we learned was that aphids are always going to be a problem in canola every year and we always have to be conscious of that and be ready for them. So, that's one of the first things we tried to address as our learning curve increased. We started figuring out ways we could hold back aphids and manage them."

Royer says that another pest of concern is the diamond-backed moth and other caterpillars that may begin to invest the crop before it goes into dormancy. He says they are studying it very closely to see if the weather has any affect on them or if they are continued to do damage while the canola plant is dormant.

You can listen to my interview with Tom Royer by clicking here.   

NCC Believes Brazil WTO Case Resolved

In response to Brazil's decision to request a panel at the World Trade Organization (WTO) to assess the new U.S. farm bill, the National Cotton Council stated that the new Stacked Income Protection Plan was developed specifically to bring the United States into compliance with the 2008 WTO Appellate Body decision thus resolving the long-standing dispute.

NCC Chairman Wally Darneille said, "The farm bill makes several changes to cotton policy and the GSM 102 export credit program. These changes are significant, and we believe the matter is resolved. We are encouraged by statements by Brazilian officials which indicate a preference to resolve the case through continued discussions rather than retaliation. We encourage U.S. officials to continue to engage with their Brazilian counterparts to reach a resolution to the case."

You can catch the rest of this story on our website by clicking here.

 

Chinese Grain Policy Change Good News for U.S. Producers, Kim Anderson Says

Good news for U.S. grain farmers: China this week dropped its policy to be self-sufficient in wheat, corn and soybeans. In his preview for this week's SUNUP program, OSU Extension Grain Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson tells host Lyndall Stout what that means for U.S. producers.

"China has always had a grain policy to maximize their production. They wanted to be self-sufficient in producing wheat, corn and beans. They've had a dramatic increase in meat consumption and demand in China.

"They are dropping that quantity grain production to quality grain production. They are releasing land so it can produce more valuable crops like the vegetable crops, but that means they'll be importing more wheat, corn and beans. And I think that's positive for our exports."

Catch more of Kim Anderson's analysis and this week's SUNUP lineup by clicking here.

 

This N That- Hogs, Horses and Heroes! 

Our first "H" in this segment of our Friday email is about the HSUS and their latest undercover video at a hig farm in western Kentucky. On Thursday, HSUS rolled out their latest video attacking the practice of using gestation crates- and added a new wrinkle- decrying the practice of feedback- where tiny amounts of baby pig tissue that is infected with PEDv is given to pregnant sows in an effort to help the sows build up immunity to the disease and hopefully transmit that immunity in her milk to her baby pigs.

American Association of Swine Veterinarians Executive Director Dr. Tom Burkgren explains the procedure as speeding up the exposure that would occur naturally over time - providing a much better chance of protecting baby pigs. Dr. Paul Sundberg of the National Pork Board adds that in the natural environment - wild hog sows and those raised outdoors will eat dead baby pigs on their own as a natural protection against virus.

The Center for Food Integrity quickly assembled an independent panel of animal health professionals that reviewed the claims of HSUS- and found them lacking in being factual and truthful.   

We have details of their findings and the HSUS video in our story on our website for you to check out- click here and jump over yonder.

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Turning our attention to Horses- there is a bill does not seem likely to move forward at the state capitol that would allow counties to vote on whether to allow horse slaughter facilities in their county.  Click here for  details on this bill as offered by Senator Randy Bass from southwest Oklahoma.  

There has been talk about "maybe" having a horse slaughter plant in the vicinity of the Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City. This appears to be not true- and State Representative Skye  McNeil addressed that issue in a statement released last night-
"I have spoken with President Robert Fisher from the Oklahoma Stockyards and, frankly, he is just as surprised as I was to hear that a rumor is being circulated that a horse slaughter facility will be built and operated at the Stockyards. He has made it clear to me that this rumor is patently false. I recognize that this issue has become a heated subject during the last year, but spreading blatant lies for political gain is shameful and transparent. I am hopeful that we can raise the level of discourse on this issue should Senator Bass' proposal move forward."      

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Finally- we arrive at my third "H" of the morning- Heroes.  I am not a hero but I have been inspired by more than one in my lifetime.  I buried one of those on Monday as my dad, Bob Hays, was laid to rest in a cemetery in central Kentucky.  Many of you were also heroes as you offered me encouragement along the way because of that goodbye on Monday as well as my birthday that some of you knew about from Facebook- and I want to say thanks for the kind words that many have offered.  They are greatly appreciated.   

I choose to include military honors in the service honoring my dad- the young soldiers stood by his casket draped with a flag, rifles were fired and taps were played and my family received that flag that had covered the casket.   

I thought a few of you might enjoy reading what the Army said about my dad who served in the Pacific in World War II and was a part of what has been called "The Greatest Generation."  Of his service in the 1940s, the Army called him a "Rifleman"  and they wrote "Served as Assistant Squad Leader in a Rifle Squad. Assisted in the holding and capturing of enemy positions. Went on long marches and endured other hardships common to a common infantryman. Used Rifle, grenade, carbine etc- served with the 19th Infantry Regiment for 23 months on new Guinea, Goodenough Islands, Leyte, Mindoro, Luzon, Mindonao and Japan."

When he finally was willing to talk about the War in his latter years- he talked about just being a country boy and how his growing up on a farm helped him lead and survive.  

We continue to lose his generation on a daily basis- and if you still have one alive in your life- take a few minutes right away to learn all you can about their story during those days of war in the 1940s.  You will be blessed.