Nowhere to go but Down- Mark Hodges on 2014 Winter Wheat Yields

With harvest rapidly approaching and rainfall happening on a hit or miss basis, wheat producers all across Oklahoma are getting a sinking feeling in the pits of their stomachs. Mark Hodges with Plains Grains said the 2014 wheat crop got off to a good start and was able to establish a good root system with good tillers, but from there it seems everything has been downhill.

"We really haven't gotten any moisture, any significant moisture, this spring since we broke dormancy, so it's really taken a toll on the plants. Of course, the most evident part of that is when you go across the state and walk out in the wheat field and that wheat is either in the boot or headed out and it's boot-top high. That tells you quite a little bit. That tells you that head is probably pretty short and that plant has been under a lot of stress."

Hodges spoke with me recently and said that a mid-April freeze on top of an already-sparse soil moisture profile hit the Oklahoma crop hard. He said the damage hasn't been limited to the state, however, but much of the hard red winter wheat belt is suffering as well.

"If you looked at a rectangle that would start on the southern side at Lubbock, Texas, and a width from the New Mexico border across to Wichita Falls and go north all the way to I-70, there's a significant portion of that area and I wouldn't hesitate to say 30 to 40 percent of that area is in a D4 or a D3 drought which pretty well defines what happened to the wheat crop."

He said the western and southwestern counties of Oklahoma have been devastated by the drought which has stretched from three years into four in a lot of areas. The drought stress experienced by the crop has hastened its maturity as it seeks to reproduce as quickly as it can given the lack of moisture. That will definitely reduce yields, he said.

Click here to read more of this story or to listen to my interview with Mark.  He will also join me on this Saturday's "In the Field" on News 9 in Oklahoma City about 6:40 a.m. 

Cattle on Feed Preview- Jim Robb Sees On Feed Numbers Even With Last Year 

The next regular Cattle on Feed report from USDA comes out this afternoon at 2 p.m. Central Time. The Executive Director of the Livestock Market Information Center, Jim Robb, sees two percent fewer placements in this report compared to March of 2013- but still the potential for as many or maybe a few more cattle on feed on April first compared to April Fools Day, 2013.

Dr. Robb told Eric Atkinson on Agriculture Today earlier this week that those numbers on feed being about even with a year ago " are not very sustainable given the total pool of cattle is still shrinking in the United States."

Robb's comments are featured in today's Beef Buzz.  Click here to listen in or to read some additional analysis on the Cattle on Feed report by Allendale's Rich Nelson.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated Bryan County in Oklahoma as a primary natural disaster area due to the recent drought.

"Our hearts go out to those Oklahoma farmers and ranchers affected by recent natural disasters," said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. "President Obama and I are committed to ensuring that agriculture remains a bright spot in our nation's economy by sustaining the successes of America's farmers, ranchers, and rural communities through these difficult times. We're also telling Oklahoma producers that USDA stands with you and your communities when severe weather and natural disasters threaten to disrupt your livelihood."

Farmers and ranchers in the following counties in Oklahoma also qualify for natural disaster assistance because their counties are contiguous:  Atoka, Choctaw, Johnston and Marshall.

Practically all Oklahoma counties that border with Texas also qualify for disaster assistance.  Please click here to see a full list and read more. 

DuPont Pioneer and the Sorghum Checkoff to Improve Sorghum Genetics

DuPont Pioneer and the United Sorghum Checkoff Program today announced a collaboration to advance genetic tools and opportunities for grain sorghum, which was planted on just over 8 million acres in the United States in 2013. Under a three-year collaboration agreement, the Sorghum Checkoff will leverage the world-class seed technology program at Pioneer for a total investment of $800,220 from Pioneer starting in 2014.

The collaboration is a reflection of sorghum's value to farmers and consumers alike. In 2013, U.S. grain sorghum generated $1.7 billion in farm receipts. Additionally, 136 million bushels of sorghum produced last year were exported, with nearly 90 percent of the grain going to China. Sorghum exports have contributed more than $800 million to the U.S. economy.

"This collaboration will help increase sorghum farmer productivity and profitability," said Kay Porter, DuPont Pioneer senior research manager. "We believe this collaboration will lead to new innovations to develop stronger and higher yielding sorghum varieties."

Click here for more of this story. 

Traders Missing Key Development In Markets, Kim Anderson Says

In his preview to this week's SUNUP program, Dr. Kim Anderson, Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Marketing Specialist, says wheat markets have become entrenched in a sideways patter of late. Trading this past week has fallen into a range from $7.20 to $8.00.

Anderson says that market observers this week across the board have missed a key development which could impact the markets.

"Several large banks have taken their money out of the commodity markets. That would be funds money. If more banks and more investors pull out of commodities, it will be interesting to see if taking dollars out of a market what price impact that has."

Some small areas got lots of rain this week, but Anderson says on a general scale it was insufficient to save this year's crop and crop insurance adjusters are staying busy in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. He says the bigger question is will the remaining crop be of milling quality.

Click here to listen to Kim Anderson's commentary and to see a full rundown for this weekend's SUNUP program on OETA.  

EPA and USDA Join the Chorus- Researchers Ignore Realities on Corn Stover to Ethanol Story

Amid a growing chorus of critics, representatives of two federal agencies have severely questioned the results of a study that purports to tally the greenhouse gas emissions of using corn stover for ethanol production.

In response to the study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released this statement: "This paper is based on a hypothetical assumption that 100 percent of corn stover in a field is harvested; an extremely unlikely scenario that is inconsistent with recommended agricultural practices. As such, it does not provide useful information relevant to the lifecycle GHG emissions from corn stover ethanol. EPA's lifecycle analysis assumes up to 50 percent corn stover harvest. EPA selected this assumption based on data in the literature and in consultation with agronomy experts at USDA to reflect current agricultural practices."

At the same time, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack joined the chorus for a similar refrain. The study makes "certain assumptions about farming operations that aren't a reality," he told the Des Moines Register. "It's not what's happening on the ground. If you make the wrong assumption, you're going to come up with the wrong conclusions."

You can read the rest of this story by clicking here.  

This N That- Rough Weather Weekend Ahead, Hall Coyote Hills Sale Next Saturday and Deadline for Application to Next Class of OALP

It could be a rough weather weekend for the state of Oklahoma- Alan Crone with the News on 6 has written in his Friday morning blog  "Late Saturday afternoon a subtle wave of instability will move across the high plains of Texas and cause a few storms to develop across southwestern or western OK.  These storms would quickly become severe with damaging winds and very large hail.  As the storms progress east and northeast by Saturday evening, conditions for rotating thunderstorms are expected to increase.  This time period from late afternoon into the midnight to 2am hours may be the highest tornado potential for the western and central portion of the state."

We have the timeline in graphic form in a webstory on our website- click here to check those weather maps out from the National Weather Service and how they think Saturday afternoon- evening Sunday morning will play out.

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Coming up a week from tomorrow is the Hall-Coyote Hills Ranch Limousine & Lim-Flex Production Sale- on Saturday. May 3 at 1:00 pm

The sale will be held at the Ranch near Chattanooga, Oklahoma
1 mile west. 2 miles south and 1 mile west of Chattanooga, OK on Hwy 5

Call 580-597-3006 to receive a catalog or visit their website by clicking here to view the catalog with complete performance data, pedigrees information, EPDs and photos.

SELLING 180 HEAD AS 100 LOTS INCLUDES:
60 Purebred & Lim-Flex Fall Pairs
20 Purebred & Lim-Flex Spring Pairs
5 Fall Bred Purebred & Lim-Flex Heifers
10 Registered Angus cows with Lim-Flex calves at side
15 Fancy Fall Heifers...Excellent Show-Heifer Prospects   

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Last call for you to apply for Class 17 of the Oklahoma Ag Leadership Program- deadline to get your application to the OALP office in Stillwater is May first.

Click here for the OALP website where you can download an application- your application needs to be in by May first but recommendations can follow a few days after that.

For some more details about the program and how to apply for Class 17- click here for our story from late March on applications for the program.