USDA Reduces Size of Expected 2014 CorCrop, But Still Record Level

The latest crop production report from the US Department of Agriculture offered few surprises Monday.  Trade Analyst Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities called the report neutral for soybeans and wheat and slightly friendly for corn.


"The friendly part about corn is, we saw the production and yield come in less than it was in October," Leffler said. "That's kind of a surprise as we all thought we would see it larger, but when you really get to looking at it still not an overly friendly situation."

The nation's corn production was estimated at 14.407 billion bushels. While that is lower than the October estimate, the nation is still looking to have a record yielding corn crop. USDA reduced the yield estimate to 173.4 bushels per acre. The number of harvested acres remain unchanged over last month. The lower production estimate lead to a drop in the nation's corn ending stocks. USDA estimated ending stocks at over two billion bushels. Leffler said this is the highest ending stocks for the US in the past ten years.   

USDA estimates total corn supply at 15.7 billion bushels, with estimated use at 13.7, leaving ending stocks of 2.0 billion bushels. Average farm price, reported as a range, was increased a dime to $3.20-$3.80 per bushel. 

The nation's soybean crop continues to get larger. USDA estimated the nation's production to be larger than the October estimate at 3.958 billion bushels. Last month USDA's estimate was 3.927 billion bushels. The nation's yield average was estimated at 47.5 bushels per acre, up from 47.1 bpa. USDA continues to predict the nation will produce a record soybean crop as well. Rich Nelson with Allendale said USDA left most of the states unchanged, but they increased the yield forecast by one bushel per acre in Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota and South Dakota's estimate was increased by two bushels per acre. 

"As a whole, a moderate increase in supply was seen here," Nelson said.  "What we didn't see was a large jump in demand.   USDA only raised crush by 10 million bushels from last month and they only raised exports by about 20 million bushels from last month.  The trade is very likely going to keep their mindset on change as far as soybeans, they will probably say USDA will have to recognize a little better demand in coming reports here."

To hear Leslie Smith visit with Tom Leffler- click or tap here.

To watch the YouTube of Rich Nelson with Allendale, click or tap here.

To read the corn crop analysis from the National Corn Growers- click here.

And to read John Anderson's Crop Report analysis- click or tap here. (John is the Chief Economist with the American Farm Bureau) 

Oklahoma Crop Numbers See Cotton Production Whacked Compared to October- Other Spring Crops Unchanged

Sorghum and soybean acreage harvested in Oklahoma this fall show these two crops the most popular spring planted crops for 2014. In the November USDA Crop production report released on Monday, November 10, Uncle Sam shows farmers of these crops will harvest 330,000 acres each this year. The grain sorghum acres are up by sixty thousand acres compared to 2013, even as corn acres declined 40,000 acres over a year ago.


Grain sorghum production ended up, based on November first data, at 18.4 million bushels in Oklahoma on 56 bushels per acre production. Soybeans saw harvested acres down by five thousand acres compared to a year ago, with the yield virtually unchanged from 2013 with the 2014 crop coming in at thirty one bushels per acre. Total soybean production is tabulated at 10.23 million bushels.


Cotton acreage recovered a significant amount from 2013, with harvested cotton acres at 210,000 acres this year, up from 125,000 acres as drought really nailed the Oklahoma crop even harder last year than here in 2014. The disappointment for cotton was the fall off in lint production over the last thirty days- as total pounds of cotton that will be harvested this year, based on November first, versus October first is off by 126 pounds per acre- falling from 709 to 583 pounds of cotton lint per acre this fall. That pulls back what could have been double the crop of a year ago to just a crop that is sixty percent bigger than a year ago. Total cotton production for this year is projected to be 255,000 bales for the state, well above the 154,000 bales grown a year ago in Oklahoma.

The hard red winter wheat crop numbers for harvest back in June were left alone- showing 2014 wheat harvest at historic lows not seen since the 1950s. A lot of that was tied back to the 2.8 million acres harvested this year, six hundred thousand fewer acres harvested this year versus last. The final yield of 17 bushels per acre equated to just 47.6 million bushels produced this year, versus 105 million bushels the year before.  Click here to read more about the national crop production estimates.  

Cotton harvest was picking up this past week in Oklahoma.  The latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture showed cotton harvest reached 42 percent completion this past week, a 15 point jump from last week.   Ninety-two percent of wheat had emerged, up 9 points from the five year average. The crop rated in six percent in excellent condition, 48 in good, 34 percent in fair, 12 percent in poor to very poor. The wheat crop ratings improved five percentage points from just a week ago in that good to excellent range.  As for the 2015 Canola crop, it is now rated 43% good to excellent and 40% in fair condition.  The Canola ratings have also improved compared to a week ago- three percentage points improvement in that good to excellent range.  Click here for the full Oklahoma crop report.   

Significant rainfall was received in many parts of Texas, which slowed harvest progress. The Texas Cotton harvest is 17 percentage points behind the five year average at 42 percent complete.  The recent rains helped the wheat crop emerge.  The crop rated in 12 percent in excellent condition, 39 in good, 35 in fair and 14 percent in poor to very poor.  Click here for the full Texas crop report.

Rain and cool temperatures occurred across the southeastern Kansas, while the rest of the state remained dry and warm.  Corn harvest reached 92 percent complete, sorghum harvest was behind at 67 percent complete and soybean harvest was at 84 percent.  The winter wheat crop rated in six percent in excellent condition, 57 good and 34 in fair condition.  Click here for the full Kansas Report.

Nationally- it appears that the corn, soybean and cotton crops have pretty much caught up with the five year average when it comes to harvest progress- just as this BLUE NORTHER roars into the midwest- there will be areas that are getting winter precip that will be hard pressed to get much done for several days- so those areas will face harvest slowdowns- in the meantime- you can click here for the National Crop Progress Report.

 

Gebhart Urges Producers to Comment on WOTUS by Friday

Ag producers and the general public only a few more days to comment on the 'Waters of the US' proposal from the Environmental Protection Agency and Army Corps of Engineers.   The public comment period will close on Friday, November 14th. Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association President Richard Gebhart has been talking about the impact this rule would have on agriculture for the past four months. Gebhart said its extremely important producers submit their comments by Friday.


"It is still the biggest threat in my opinion to farmers and ranchers to their livelihood that's out there," Gebhart said. "It's still in the Federal Register, I think we had hopefully a turning point in Tuesday's election. Our Senator Jim Inhofe will be the Chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee and hopefully the Senator can get something done about it, but its still crucial that producers get out there and say what they think about it."


In this past week's election the GOP took control of the Senate. Gebhart said that will not prevent EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy from publishing the WOTUS rule. He thinks there are some things the Senate and House can do that prevent her from spending money to implement the rule.  

Back to the Comment Period- one easy way to submit comments on the 'WOTUS' proposal is to go to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association website. There is a form letter that producers can use to submit a comment.  

 

I caught up with Richard this past Friday at the quarterly board meeting of the Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association.  Click here to listen to the full feature on WOTUS and his outlook for Country of Origin Labeling in the US.  

Peel Offers Oklahoma Cattle Market Roundup

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, writes in the latest Cow/Calf Corner newsletter.


Feeder cattle prices have increased this fall; showing no signs of seasonal weakness. Prices have advanced the most on 450-550 pound stockers, the most popular stocker animals for winter wheat grazing. Oklahoma auction prices for Medium and Large, Number 1 steers, 450-500 pounds averaged above $300/cwt. for the first time ever the last week of October, pushing higher to $307.02 this past week. Prices for 500-550 pound steers averaged $296.62/cwt. last week and may push above $300/cwt. this week. Rain in early October that established wheat was followed by a month of dry and warm conditions that threatened wheat pasture development. However, widespread rain across Oklahoma the first week of November ensures wheat pasture for the remainder of the year and has augmented stocker demand in November.


Stocker values of gain calculated on current prices have eroded slightly from the very strong levels that have existed since late summer. This is due to the proportionately bigger advance on stocker prices compared to heavy feeders the past couple of weeks. However, values of gain remain strong...well over a dollar per pound...and offer opportunity for returns this winter, especially as wheat pasture has gotten cheaper this fall. Values of gain are stronger for heavier beginning weights, i.e. animals over 600 pounds, perhaps providing an opportunity for producers anticipating a shorter winter grazing period.


Click here for more from Dr. Peel- including his take on the value of paying a premium for a pre conditioned calf.

AGree Launches Nutritional, Environmental and International Initiatives

A highly diverse and remarkably broad group of farmers, ranchers, agri-businesses, environmentalists, nutritionists, and other experts Monday announced a landmark set of consensus recommendations and targeted initiatives on critical issues facing food and agriculture. The recommendations call for far-reaching changes to federal policy and private-sector action and have significant implications for food production, processing, and consumption.


AGree is calling for: a major shift in how conservation of working landscapes is undertaken and funded toward watershed-scale partnership approaches; a commitment to making food security an enduring goal of U.S. foreign assistance through permanent law; and significant intensification of efforts to integrate public- and private-sector programs and policies focused on improving community health through food and nutrition.


"AGree's consensus recommendations will serve as roadmaps for action," said Deborah Atwood, AGree's Executive Director. "For three years, AGree has focused on achieving consensus. With wide-ranging and often divergent points of view around the table, it has been a long, at times difficult, but very fruitful journey. AGree will now focus on implementation and advocacy."

Click here to learn about the AGree initiatives launched Monday.

Blue Norther Arrives- When Will We See the 50s Again?

As the arctic/polar air roared into Oklahoma from Kansas and Colorado yesterday afternoon, the wind gusts and the coldness of the temperatures were the big features- little to no precipitation has been associated with this baby.   

The Tweets quickly were pointing out how fast temperatures were falling behind the front- at our vantage point in Central Oklahoma- we zipped through the 50s in well under an hour and have settled into the mid thirties as early this morning.  Wind Chills are in the teens and 20s over the bulk of the state, and the extremes show that you can count the Wind Chill number on the fingers of ONE HAND in Boise City- stick four fingers up in the air and you have got it- of course, they those fingers will freeze if you leave them up i the exposed wind gusts for too long.  

Our friend and Oklahoma Weather legend Gary England  summed it up well for the short term forecast yesterday- before the front came in- "Great day today..Freeze your honey off tomorrow and blow your shirt to Texas." 

The longer term question is- when do we finally push this blanket of deep polar cold off of us and it heads east?  David Payne with News9 told his viewers last night that the cold is here for at least the next nine days- with no high temperatures even into the upper 40s, let alone any fifties.  There is also a chance for some winter mix moisture- the first wave on Saturday-Sunday and then another shot about next Wednesday or so.  

Stacia Knight with the News on 6 in Tulsa does offer a 50 degree high for next Wednesday- a week from tomorrow- this in her Veteran's Day Forecast on this Tuesday morning.  Click here to take a look and maybe the November Winter will be past us in about a week.