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The US Department of Agriculture, in an Economic Research Service report on the livestock industry released mid December, offered an analytical answer to the question, "Will They or Won't They Expand the Cow Herd?"


You may remember the black eight ball toy that has been around for several decades- you shake the ball and at the bottom of it is a window where you can see various answers float up to where you can read them. Answers like- "Definitely Yes" or "Not Likely." Well, in this December report, the USDA took several paragraphs to answer the question with an "It depends."

According to the USDA cattle experts- the retention of cows has been "okay but not great." They tell us "the 14-percent share of cow slaughter relative to the January 1, 2014, total U.S. cow inventory is not as robust an indication as it has been during expansionary phases of past cattle cycles. Generally, lower proportions of cows in the slaughter mix imply cows are being withheld from slaughter. For example, in 2004-06-the last time expansion was observed on any scale-the ratio of total annual commercial cow slaughter to January 1 cow inventories was below 13 percent each year, with 2005 at 11.7 percent."

Heifer retention makes a somewhat stronger case for herd rebuilding, according to USDA- but still a heifer held back that was born last spring will not add any beef into the pipeline until 2017 or even early 2018.

Click here to read more- and we also have a link to the entire mid December Livestock outlook report from Uncle Sam.

Terry Detrick of AFR on 2015- Look Ahead, Be Cautious But Be Prepared 

The President of the American Farmers and Ranchers, Terry Detrick, calls 2014 a mixed bag for their members across the state of Oklahoma. A poor wheat crop and falling grain prices during the year were offset by excellent production of spring planted crops and high cattle prices. Detrick says that 2014 reminds us that mother nature is very much in control of the well being of those who are farmers and ranchers- and those in agribusiness that they do business with.


We talked with Detrick about how 2014 treated AFR members- and what he was looking for as 2015 arrives. You can hear our full conversation with Terry by jumping over to our website by clicking here- And- Terry will be our guest for the first In the Field of the new year tomorrow morning, Saturday, January third on News9, KWTV at 6:40 AM during the morning news block.


Detrick told us that he was grateful that Congress in their Fiscal Year 2015 Appropriations bill instructed USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack to back off his proposed second, separate beef checkoff concept. Detrick says that AFR opposed the Vilsack plan to add a generic Beef Checkoff- saying the current Beef Checkoff structure works well and has returned $11.20 for every dollar invested by cattle producers. Detrick adds that, at the state level, AFR is supportive of putting a State Beef Checkoff in place that would run parallel with the current national checkoff effort- as long as that state checkoff included a refund provision. 

OSU's Livestock Judging Team Wins Big at Arizona National Livestock Judging Contest 

The new contest year for collegiate livestock judging is now underway- and the 2015 edition of the Oklahoma State University Livestock Judging team took no prisoners on December 30th at the Arizona National Livestock Show in Phoenix, grabbing nine of the top ten individual positions in the contest as the team cruised to a dominating team victory. Placing second in the team competition was a squad from the University of Arkansas. Fresno State was the third team in the overall standings.


The individuals from the OSU squad that placed in the top ten included Matt Walta as the high overall indivdual. Second place honors went to Trent Ray, third was Dyson Runyan, Fourth was Ethan Propp, Fifth was Blythe Graham, sixth place was earned by Elizabeth Nixon, Seventh was Ricky Burns, ninth was Kyndal Reitzenstein and tenth place was won by Kale Hensley. 

Read more about the Cowboy victory by clicking or tapping here.  

North American Meat Institute is Stunned by Dietary Guidelines Committee Dropping Lean Meat From Healthy Diet

The North American Meat Institute (NAMI) in comments submitted earlier this week raised strong objections to the 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee's (DGAC) removal of lean meat from a healthy dietary pattern.


"The committee's removal of nutrient-dense lean meat from a healthy dietary pattern is stunning," said NAMI President and CEO Barry Carpenter. "The change was made behind closed doors during a lunch break at the final December 15 meeting. Actions made in haste behind closed doors are not rooted in science and do not make good public policy."


NAMI's comments called the action "arbitrary and capricious" and said it "suggests that the DGAC fails to recognize the nutritional value lean meat offers and is ignoring the scientific evidence supporting its inclusion in the American diet." The Institute provided extensive references showing the important nutritional contributions that lean meat and poultry make to the diet.

More on their comments available here.

Award winning broadcast journalist Jerry Bohnen has spent years learning and understanding how to cover the energy business here in the southern plains-  Click here to subscribe to his daily update of top Energy News.

Welcome to 2015- Energy Markets are Higher- Ag Futures Open Shortly 

This is the first trading day of the new year- and already, the energy complex is up and running- and bouncing back from the lower prices we saw on Wednesday, December 31st.  Early morning trade shows crude oil prices up 29 cents a barrel to $53.56 while Natural Gas prices have jumped 1.7 percent up this morning- five cents higher to $2.94.

Ag futures will start trading in the 8 AM hour central time.

The stock market got hammered late in the day on Wednesday- and early futures trade activity suggests the first day of the new year will be a rough one on our portfolios.

Finally- the two week hiatus in cash livestock trade as it pertains to feeder cattle markets is coming to a close- with the Monday auction sales set to be our first tests of the yearling and calf markets since December 19th- among those that will be open for the January 5th trade will be the Tulsa Stockyards, Joplin Regional Livestock Market and the Oklahoma National Stockyards.