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"Approximately one third of farmland is not owned by an operating farmer, and this could have an impact on conservation efforts going forward," Vilsack said. He noted that the last time this issue was looked at in great detail was 1937. "We want to reassure the farming community that we are not only focused on the present, with implementation of the farm bill, but we also have an eye toward the long-term."

clicking here.

USDA Continues to Predict Big Global Crop Production

Large corn, soybean and wheat crops looks to hold down commodity prices for the near future. On Monday the U.S. Department of Agriculture released several reports on the domestic and international crop production and ending stocks. Radio Oklahoma Network's Leslie Smith interviewed Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities about how the report will influence the futures market.  Leffler said overall the numbers were negative for soybeans, wheat was mostly negative, while corn estimates were neutral to slightly friendly.


USDA lowered corn their domestic corn production estimate to 14.216 billion bushels. That was 133 million bushels less than trade expectations and 191 million less than USDA's December estimate. The nation's crop averaged 171 bushels per acre. That was 2.3 bushels per acre less than the trade expected and 2.4 bushels per acre lower than December's estimate.


The nation's soybean production was increased by USDA to 3.969 billion bushels. That was 13 million bushels higher than trade predictions and 11 million bushels greater than the December report. The nation's soybean yield estimate was increased to 47.8 bushels per acre.


USDA's ending stocks report came in closer to trade analyst estimates. Corn stocks came in at 1.877 billion bushels. Leffer said this was the largest U.S. ending stocks in the last nine years. U.S. soybean ending stocks came in at 410 million bushels, which was unchanged from the December report.   Leffler said this was the largest U.S. soybean ending stocks of the past eight years. The nation's wheat ending stocks came in at 687 million bushels. That was 33 million bushels more than the December estimate and was the fifth largest U.S. ending stocks of the past 13 years. 

 

USDA also released the U.S. 2015 winter wheat acreage estimate and their latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.  Read more and have the opportunity to listen to the full analysis by Tom Leffler by clicking here.  

The economic situation for ag producers is a mixed bag across agriculture and the outlook is highly uncertain. While cattle and hog producers received record prices and record returns in 2014, it was a different story for other commodities like corn and soybeans. American Farm Bureau Chief Economist Bob Young said we finally managed to catch up with the demand growth from ethanol and from China. Once supply meets demand that brings noticeably lower prices and he looks for that trend to continue in 2015.


"We are going to find ways for supply to catch up with demand on some products," Young said. "I think one of the challenges that the beef folks in particular are going to face is not so much they are going to put that much supply on the table, but it is going to be so much supply of other meats available, both poultry side as well as pork. That's just going to make it tough for beef to hold on to some of those prices in the retail sector."


In the first quarter of 2015, Young said he is already seeing that beef demand is being tested, along with increased pork and poultry supplies in the supermarket.


 I talked with Young about the economic outlook for agriculture at the 2015 American Farm Bureau Convention in San Diego.  Read more and have the opportunity to listen to the full conversation by clicking or tapping here.

Peel on Evolving Role of Canadian and Mexican Cattle and Beef Trade

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, writes in the latest Cow/Calf Corner newsletter.


The most recent monthly trade data provides an update to recent cattle and beef trade flows in North America.   They emphasize the longer term evolution and change in the roles of Canada and Mexico in North American and global markets. Cattle and beef trade flows between the U.S., Mexico and Canada are increasingly complex and represent an ever more integrated North American market. Canada and Mexico are both major beef import sources and destinations for U.S. beef exports.


Canada has historically been viewed as primarily a beef exporting country. However, in recent years, Canadian beef exports have decreased to a point where Canada is much closer to a balance between beef imports and exports. Canada remains a significant net exporter of live cattle to the U.S. In the latest November data, U.S. beef exports to Canada were down 12.2 percent from last year, contributing to a 22.5 percent year over year decrease in the first eleven months of the year. November U.S. imports of Canadian beef were up 13.9 percent from 2013 levels, part of an 11 percent year to date increase compared to a year earlier. U.S. imports of Canadian cattle were up 42.2 percent in November, contributing to a 22.1 percent year over year increase for the January to November period. These cattle imports consist of feeder cattle, up 46.5 percent year over year, including a 77.2 percent increase in November; and slaughter cattle (both fed cattle and cull cows/bulls), which were up 20 percent in November and 8.5 percent for the year to date.  
 

Click or tap here to read the rest of his analysis from Peel on the trade flows between the U.S., Canada and Mexico.

The 2015 Cattle Industry Convention is less than three weeks away. The event will be held February 4 - 7 in San Antonio, Texas. That includes Cattlemen's College on Tuesday, February 3rd and Wednesday, February 4th. The event features a lot of great presenters including Dr. Keith Belk professor from Colorado State University at the Center for Meat Safety and Quality. Belk said they have been asked to offer their 'Gate to Plate' program.


"We are going to actually have some hands-on opportunities to look at some live cull cows and bulls, then we are going to have some carcasses and products that result from different management systems associated with those cull cows and bulls," Belk said. "I think the producers are really going to enjoy to see the first hand what the impact is of various decisions and management techniques that they use, what the impact is of those decisions on the product."  

As the U.S. begins to rebuild the nation's cowherd, this will reduce the supply of beef available, but demand for lean beef remains strong. Belk and his colleagues from Colorado State will be looking at enhancing the value of those cull cows and bulls. 

Read more about the other topics being presented at Cattlemen's College and have the opportunity to listen to this Beef Buzz by clicking or tapping here. 

Award winning broadcast journalist Jerry Bohnen has spent years learning and understanding how to cover the energy business here in the southern plains- Click here to subscribe to his daily update of top Energy News.

Retailers Restock Shelves After Holidays at Higher Prices- Latest Wholesale Beef Trade

On a regular basis, Ed Czerwein of the USDA Market News Office in Amarillo, Texas offers a review of the previous week's boxed beef trade. Here is the weekly boxed beef trade for week ending January 10th. The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week last Friday at $256.79 which was a 8.91 higher. There were 874 loads sold for the week in the daily boxed beef cutout which was a good week of post holiday sales to restock shelves. It was about 11 percent of the total volume.


The comprehensive or weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales was $249.68 which was 5.25 higher. There were 6,639 total loads sold which was 1,678 loads higher than the previous week and almost exactly the same as last year as retailers once again aggressively restock shelves after the holidays. However the cutout price is about $42 above last year.


The formula sales were at 3,426 loads which was 416 loads higher than last week and about 52 percent of the total loads sold. Exports as reported on the weekly boxed beef report are predominately muscle cuts and they were at 651 loads which was 267 loads higher than the previous week. Of that, 156 loads were sold to our North American Free Trade Agreement neighbors and 495 loads were shipped overseas. 
 

 More details on the latest boxed beef report are available by clicking or tapping here.

This n That- Policy Debate Underway Today, Chris Hodges New Pork Checkoff Chief and Glynn Tonsor Optimistic About 2015 Beef Prices

As we write this on a Tuesday morning- we are getting ready to observe the national version of the Farm Bureau's Grass Roots policy creation in action as delegates from across the US gather in one room here in San Diego and work on what resolutions that will become the official policy positions of the group for the coming year.  

It is anticipated that the delegates will finish their debate in a single day as they start at 8 AM Pacific time in working their way through the process.  

We'll have details on our website, via Twitter (ron_on_RON) and tomorrow here in the daily email.

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Chris Hodges has been selected to become the new CEO of the National Pork Board, effective mid February.  Currently based in Kansas City, Hodges is senior vice president - business development of Smithfield Farmland.   


"When I first joined what was then Farmland Industries as a grain division manager, I joined a farmer cooperative," said Hodges. "Over the years, I have grown to understand the needs and challenges facing pork producers. From product marketing to disease management to sustainability, I look forward to working with the National Pork Board staff and Board to develop the tangible tools and grassroots programs on behalf of America's pig farmers."

Click here to read more about Hodges and this selection by pork producers.   

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We will be featuring the conversation that we had earlier this week here in San Diego with Dr. Glynn Tonsor of Kansas State regarding cattle prices and beef demand- but thought you might like to jump over to our story featuring Tonsor's presentation here at the AFBF meeting which gives you a chance to hear that full Q&A that we had with one of the Economists that we feature regularly when it comes to getting a read on the cattle market. 

Click here to catch what is a optimistic look at where the cattle market will be as 2015 unfolds- including what Tonsor thinks will be pretty good beef demand here in the new year- after a historically strong 2014.