Record Global Cotton Stocks will make 2015 a Challenging Year

National Cotton Council economists say 2015 will be another challenging year for the U.S. cotton industry - as global cotton stocks remain at very high levels and uncertainties remain regarding global mill cotton use.


Dr. Gary Adams, the NCC's vice president Economics & Policy Analysis, told delegates at the NCC's 77th Annual Meeting over this past weekend that, "While world mill use in 2015 is expected to exceed world production in 2015, the differential does little to reduce global cotton stocks."


Regarding domestic cotton mill use, Adams sees ongoing growth in U.S. textile industry consumption in 2015 with the Economic Adjustment Assistance Program continuing to spur investment in U.S. mills. He projects a 100,000-plus bale increase in U.S. mill cotton use bringing total use to 3.7 million bales in 2015.


He said exports continue as the primary outlet for U.S. raw fiber. China is still the leading customer even though that country's imports have declined over the past year.


Adams said that China has amassed more than 50 million bales in its government reserves, thus leading to less need to import cotton from the world market. For 2015, China's imports are projected at 6.2 million bales, down from 7.1 million in 2014 and well below levels observed in 2011 through 2013.


China's mill use, though, is only seen realizing modest growth in 2015, Adams noted. He said that China's cotton price is almost twice the price of polyester - a relationship that is not allowing cotton mill use in China to recover.


 To read more about cotton production in India and the United States, click here.   

OSU's Derrell Peel Says Old Rules of Thumb Can Be Misleading 

Each Monday- we post on our website, OklahomaFarmReport, the analysis of Dr. Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist- here are some of the highlights of this week's thoughts from Dr. Peel:

"It's a new world of cattle prices and some of the old rules of thumb that have been used for years need to be modified. I still hear folks talking about a $10/cwt slide for calf prices...the idea that calf prices should decrease by $10/cwt. or 10 cents per pound as weight increases. This evolved from historical prices.  

"For example, from 2000-2006, the average price difference between 4-500 pound steers and 5-600 pound steers in Oklahoma auctions was $10.66/cwt, i.e., the $10 price slide. However, the price slide is not a constant absolute dollar amount as much as it is a constant percentage. The price slide for calves is typically in the range of 8-10 percent of the calf price. The price slide for the period 2000-2006 was 8.9 percent.


"The average price slide for 4-500 pound steers from 2012-2014 was $20.07/cwt...about double the old $10/cwt. rule of thumb. In percent, the price slide for this period was 9.3 percent. In 2014, the average price slide for 4-500 pound steers was $26.35/cwt. with a slightly higher percentage, at 9.7 percent. The old rule of thumb needs to be modified from "$10/cwt" to a percentage level, say 9 percent of the calf price. Thus, at a 450 pound calf price of $325/cwt, the price slide would be roughly $29.25/cwt.  

"The same idea applies to heavier feeder cattle with the price slide for 5-600 to 6-700 pound steers averaging 6-8 percent and steers above 650 pounds averaging 4-6 percent. This would suggest, for example, that a 550 pound steer price of $280/cwt would have a price slide of approximately $19.60/cwt and a 650 pound steer priced at $250/cwt. would have a price slide of roughly $12.50/cwt."
 

There are also factors that change price slides for feeder cattle.  Click here to read more.    

Philip Ellis Grabs the Reins of NCBA
 

The National Cattlemen's Beef Association has a new leader. On the last day of the Cattle Industry Convention in San Antonio, Texas, the reins were passed from outgoing President Bob McCan of Texas to Philip Ellis of Wyoming. Ellis is a fifth-generation rancher from southeast Wyoming where he has a commercial cow calf operation. 


In looking at the year ahead, Ellis has two federal government policy concerns among his top priorities for the year. First being the U.S. 'Waters of the U.S.' (WOTUS) rule proposal from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Army Corps of Engineers. Ellis said we still need to get the WOTUS rule withdrawn before it becomes an obstacle to producers. The interpretive rule was recently withdrawn, but he said the concern remains with the main 'WOTUS' rule.   Ellis said calls 'WOTUS' a regulatory obstacle that is getting in the way of families on the nation's farms and ranches.   


The second big issue is the nation's dietary guidelines will come out in 2015. There is concern that beef could be left off the guidelines. Ellis said that's troubling because these guidelines are used for the nation's school lunch program and the guidelines influence the dietary concerns of consumers. Ellis said NCBA's policy team in Washington D.C. has been closely following this as they knew there was the potential the scientific panel that reviews the guidelines might recommend reducing the amount of lean beef in the daily diet. Ellis said is concerned that this is not healthy and they will be looking out for the protein needs of all families in the U.S.  

Read or have the opportunity to listen to my full interview by clicking here.   

Oklahoma Girl Shares Her Love for Beef
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A small town girl from Wyandotte, Oklahoma is taking her love for beef to big cities. Kalyn McKibben, a fifth generation cattle producer from the northeastern part of the state became the Oklahoma Beef Ambassador last year. In September she was one of five youth selected for the 2015 National Beef Ambassador team. Through her year as a ambassador she is spending some of time speaking with cattle producers. I caught up with her at the Cattle Industry Convention.  


The National Beef Ambassador team is also spending much of year talking with consumers. McKibben said they are traveling to big urban cities such as New York City, Chicago and Houston, where consumers are often disconnected from where their food is raised.


"We focus on them (consumers) because we want them to be as confident in the beef that we produce, as we are," McKibben said.


The National Beef Ambassador team hopes to connect with consumers in a number of ways. McKibben said they each blog weekly in discussing timely agricultural issues, beef production or sharing beef recipes. They also stay connected with consumers through social media sites and there is also the one-on-one time that spend with consumers at events like cooking shows or farm shows. In interacting with consumers, McKibben has found consumers have a lot of questions. She said consumers ask questions about the environment, beef nutrition, general beef production as well as questions about easy ways to cook beef with different recipes and different cooking methods.  

Click here to read or you can listen to my full interview with Kalyn McKibben on her experiences as a National Beef Ambassador.   

Altus Lugert Water Quality and Ogallala Water Utilization Being Studied by OSU Research Teams

The Oklahoma Water Resources Center helps resolve water issues in Oklahoma by sponsoring research and disseminating the knowledge gained. While headquartered at Oklahoma State University, the center serves the entire state.


The Water Research Advisory Board, consisting of 22 state regulators, policymakers and water professionals, develops a list of priorities to address the needs of Oklahoma. These priorities guide the board in its selection process of awarding funding to water researchers.


After hearing presentations from five researchers from OSU and University of Oklahoma, the Advisory Board selected three Oklahoma State University researchers to receive funding for 2015.


The three projects awarded funding all address various water issues across the state. The first is a study into the water quality in Lake Altus-Lugert, the primary water supply for the Lugert-Altus Irrigation District in southwest Oklahoma. Altus-Lugert is virtually dry after several years of drought- and the OSU team, led by Tyson Ochsner, is looking at what lies ahead for this important lake. 

PASS Associate Professor Jason Warren has a team that is looking at the massive underground ocean that we call the Ogallala Aquifer.  The Ogallala aquifer is a vital resource for the economy of the Panhandle. Agricultural irrigation is the primary use (86 percent) of water in the region, used to produce a variety of crops, primarily corn.


The objectives of this study are to evaluate the yield and water use efficiency of corn, sorghum and wheat under a range of irrigation capacities and evaluate the profitability and production risks of these crops so producers can make sound decisions on the utilization of their water resources.

Click here to read more about these two projects as well as the third project- also being conducted by OSU researchers.  

Award winning broadcast journalist Jerry Bohnen has spent years learning and understanding how to cover the energy business here in the southern plains-  Click here for Jerry's website where there is a link on the Left Hand Column where you can subscribe to his daily update of top Energy News. 
 

A federal district court in Minnesota ordered the Environmental Protection Agency late Friday not to release farmers' and ranchers' personal information while American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) and co-plaintiff National Pork Producers Council appeal the court's decision dismissing their lawsuit. By dismissing the suit, the court ruled that farmers are not harmed when the government compiles and releases a storehouse of personal information, so long as individual bits of that information are somehow publicly accessible, such as through an Internet search or on a Facebook page.


"We are pleased that farmers' and ranchers' personal information will be protected while we appeal the court's decision," AFBF President Bob Stallman said. "We disagree that the Internet age has diminished the individual's right to protect personal information. Now, more than ever, citizens need their government to help protect their information-not gather it, tie a bow on it, and send it out to anyone who asks."


The suit concerns personal information (such as names, home addresses, telephone numbers and GPS locations) of tens of thousands of livestock and poultry farmers compiled by EPA and requested by environmental groups through Freedom of Information Act requests. AFBF and NPPC appealed the dismissal on January 29.   

Names You Know (or Need to Know)- Mike Kubicek, Kim Fryer, Kate Schaffer and Jessica Beer

We have known Mike Kubicek for about as long as we have been in Oklahoma- and that's been a day or two.  Mike has spent some of his professional life at the Oklahoma Wheat Commission and the Oklahoma Farm Bureau- but most of his years has been in service to the peanut growers of our state and of  our nation as the Executive Director of the Oklahoma Peanut Council.  Twenty two years to be exact.

Well, Mike says that he has blasted the last of his peanuts as the head honcho of the Commission. In an email on Monday, he shared with us and others "I will end my 43-year professional career promoting Oklahoma agriculture at the conclusion of the Oklahoma Peanut Expo on March 26 at Quartz Mountain Resort.  Incidentally, we will be celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Oklahoma Peanut Commission during the Expo- and it's been my pleasure to have served for almost half its life."

Mike says he will keep busy farming in the Shawnee area and is aware of a very long "to do" list waiting for his free days from his lovely bride Kianna.  I'm sure that she would welcome any ideas you might have about things that could keep Mike occupied and out from under her feet! (LOL) 

I'm also sure we will say it again at the end of March- but we'll say it now anyway- Thanks Mike for your service and for your friendship- You are a really good one for a goober!

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Kim Fryer of Frederick , Okla is among thirteen U.S. cotton producers selected for the 2015 National Cotton Council Policy Education Program (PEP).

The PEP program offers these cotton producers from across the US cotton belt the chance to experience this past week's National Cotton Council annual meeting in Memphis- and receive media training while there.

This summer- a second session for these young cotton leaders will be held in Greensboro, NC and Washington, DC- gain understanding about cotton production and policy issues.  The PEP program is underwritten by Syngenta.

Click here for more details about this current class and what they are doing in this leadership development effort.

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Finally, a pair of college students with Oklahoma ties received scholarship money this last week at the Cattle Industry Convention- courtesy of the CME group and the National Cattlemen's Foundation.

Kate Schaffer of Carthage, Missouri, is a student at Redlands in El Reno, Oklahoma majoring in Agricultural Economics. She was awarded a $1,500 CME Beef Industry Scholarship.  

In addition, Jessica Beer, who did part of her undergraduate studies at Redlands, also received one of the $1,500 scholarships from CME and NCF.  Jessica is now a student at Texas A&M.

More details are available here on this year's crop of top students that received the ten scholarships from the CME.